The Covid-19 toll, 2023

Elaborate tables, daily updated, purport to show the progress of the Covid-19 pandemic around the world. They have always been confusing, and by March 2020 it was already apparent that they did not give an accurate picture of the problems being faced. They depend on diagnoses; diagnosis has never been an exact science, and from the beginning it has been plain that the majority of serious cases of the disease are associated with other potentially lethal conditions. It seems that in those countries so badly affected that mortality from Covid-19 could be expected to show up in overall counts of deaths, there was generally significant underestimation of its effects, at least to begin with.

In the UK, the Office of National Statistics has for some years been providing numbers of deaths registered each week, in two tables, one divided by sex and age of the deceased, and one divided by region. It is therefore possible to compare the 2020-2023 figures with those of previous years. Below I give the 2023 figures so far available, together with the ratios of these to the averages over 2015-2019. See covid19.2020.htm, covid19.2021.htm and covid19.2022.htm for the corresponding tables for 2020, 2021 and 2022.

For comparison with other countries see the last reference below.


Deaths in England and Wales in 2023, divided by week of registration, sex and age
     compared with averages in 2015-2019 and coronavirus deaths declared for UK

Week ending
        6.1      20.1       3.2      17.2       3.3      17.3      31.3      14.4      28.4      12.5      26.5       9.6      23.6       7.7      21.7     Total to date  

Numbers of deaths in 2023, and ratios of these to average over the five years 2015-2019
     (ratios left blank if difference not significant)
Males
   <1    27   32   29   38   31   22   31   36   26   24   30   21   23   29   22   31   35   22   22   38   35   26   29   33   22   22   22   26   27         811     <1 
  /av                            0.7                                                                                                                   
  1-14    6   14   13    8   11   18   11   15    7   13   13    9   14   10   15    6   11   10   11   12    9    8    6    9    8   16   13   14    9         319    1-14
  /av                                                                              0.5                                0.5                              
 15-44  161  217  256  222  218  236  227  243  244  213  244  214  203  180  183  198  244  183  205  222  234  170  213  194  237  211  201  233  181        6187   15-44
  /av   1.2       1.2            1.3  1.2  1.3  1.4       1.3  1.2                      1.3       1.2       1.2  1.2            1.2            1.3             1.15
 45-64  879 1028 1041 1014  946  913  837  828  887  791  857  864  849  699  751  890  943  776  789  859  893  671  850  827  847  793  745  791  788       24646   45-64
  /av   1.2  1.2  1.3  1.2  1.2  1.1            1.2       1.1  1.1  1.2            1.2  1.2       1.2  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.1  1.1  1.2  1.1        1.15
 65-74 1169 1562 1352 1294 1144 1146 1144 1065 1065 1005 1123 1062 1041  926  922 1095 1124  890  981 1128 1045  821 1028 1018  983  988  901  996  898       30916   65-74
  /av   1.1  1.2  1.1  1.1                           0.9  1.1  1.1  1.1       0.9  1.1  1.1  0.9       1.1                 1.1                                 1.05
 75-84 2255 2645 2472 2192 2154 1951 1839 1899 1948 1755 1939 1947 1804 1628 1570 2058 1886 1596 1641 1893 1859 1408 1773 1721 1647 1726 1607 1541 1553       53907   75-84
  /av   1.3  1.3  1.3  1.2  1.2  1.1       1.1  1.2       1.2  1.2  1.2            1.3  1.2  1.1  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.1  1.1        1.16
   85+ 2588 2953 2621 2345 2184 2084 1956 1937 1976 1901 2020 1991 1888 1737 1641 2061 1923 1610 1671 1845 1762 1422 1740 1741 1689 1584 1497 1564 1509       55440     85+
  /av   1.3  1.3  1.2  1.2  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.1       1.3  1.2  1.1  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.1  1.1  1.1        1.16

Females
   <1    17   23   21   18   28   23   29   19   25   17   17   20   22   16   20   27   17   22   12   24   15   20   21   23   28   21   16   20   15         596     <1 
  /av                                                                                                       0.6                                                0.92
  1-14    8   10    8   10   11    4    6    8    8   12   10   15    9    8    5   10    8    8    3   11    6    9   10   11    7    7    6   10    7         245    1-14
  /av                            0.4                           1.8                                0.3                                                  
 15-44  121  148  148  131  138  104  105  133   96  145  116  136  125  112   93  123  131  117  112  116  133  107  125  104  104  114  137  126  117        3517   15-44
  /av   1.3  1.4  1.4  1.3  1.3            1.3       1.4       1.4  1.3                 1.2                      1.3                      1.4  1.3             1.18
 45-64  639  770  682  637  593  557  526  577  545  543  584  548  519  457  453  588  608  480  475  543  550  443  504  520  559  529  526  540  480       15975   45-64
  /av   1.2  1.3  1.2  1.2                                1.1  1.1                 1.2  1.2                 1.1            1.1  1.2  1.1  1.1  1.2             1.10
 65-74  956 1047 1011  882  865  827  765  778  780  763  779  791  765  648  690  783  796  618  648  741  728  598  687  734  672  706  656  641  659       22014   65-74
  /av   1.1  1.1  1.2       1.1                                1.1  1.1  0.9       1.1  1.1  0.9                           1.1                                 1.04
 75-84 2180 2449 2143 1923 1838 1717 1716 1625 1613 1515 1623 1574 1579 1410 1364 1688 1642 1431 1416 1566 1437 1268 1510 1427 1422 1411 1335 1400 1295       46517   75-84
  /av   1.3  1.3  1.2  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1       1.1       1.1  1.1  1.2            1.2  1.2  1.1  1.1  1.2  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.1  1.1  1.1        1.13
   85+ 3977 4483 4007 3423 3251 3070 2839 2789 2829 2713 2778 2860 2743 2229 2249 2862 2784 2380 2381 2656 2405 1868 2444 2338 2247 2245 2074 2128 2121       79173     85+
  /av   1.2  1.2  1.1                      0.9       0.9       1.1  1.1  0.9  0.9  1.1  1.1            1.1                 1.1                                 1.03

Regions (North East, North West, Yorkshire & Humberside, East Midlands, West Midlands, East, London, South East, South West, Wales)
NE      788  947  837  727  664  654  645  614  617  585  607  571  602  564  573  698  656  538  533  570  549  475  592  551  532  581  526  534  492       17822  NE    
  /av   1.2  1.3  1.2                                               1.2            1.3  1.2                 1.1       1.1  1.2       1.2       1.1             1.10
NW     2177 2330 2224 1937 1789 1644 1633 1566 1608 1621 1655 1635 1570 1367 1402 1627 1647 1339 1411 1548 1503 1153 1378 1463 1358 1385 1306 1291 1297       45864  NW    
  /av   1.2  1.3  1.3  1.2  1.1       1.1       1.1  1.1  1.1  1.2  1.2            1.2  1.2       1.1  1.1  1.2            1.2  1.1  1.1                       1.11
Y & H  1555 1771 1557 1348 1223 1250 1084 1155 1136 1059 1179 1164 1152 1052  950 1229 1161 1015 1031 1196 1070  828 1090 1061  991 1028  924 1018  998       33275  Y & H 
  /av   1.2  1.3  1.2  1.1       1.1  0.9                 1.1  1.1  1.2       0.9  1.2  1.2  1.1       1.2  1.1       1.1  1.2  1.1  1.1       1.1  1.1        1.10
E Mid  1346 1399 1368 1223 1229 1048 1062 1034 1044  969 1128 1059 1045  841  880 1057 1101  903  859  998  962  762  946  914  949  888  767  852  815       29448  E Mid 
  /av   1.2  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.2       1.1  1.1  1.1       1.2  1.2  1.2            1.2  1.3  1.1       1.1  1.2       1.1  1.1  1.2  1.1       1.1             1.12
W Mid  1529 1811 1719 1554 1472 1413 1251 1180 1248 1123 1291 1217 1270  995 1008 1311 1323 1038 1097 1227 1115  889 1147 1070 1051 1094 1018 1107 1030       35598  W Mid 
  /av   1.1  1.3  1.3  1.2  1.2  1.1                      1.1  1.1  1.3  0.9  0.9  1.2  1.3       1.1  1.2  1.1       1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1       1.2  1.1        1.12
East   1564 1839 1690 1519 1500 1379 1312 1330 1329 1246 1328 1329 1248 1136 1106 1318 1313 1056 1163 1261 1125 1002 1210 1168 1187 1083 1083 1021 1043       36888  East  
  /av   1.1  1.2  1.2  1.1  1.1  1.1            1.1       1.1  1.2  1.2       0.9  1.2  1.2       1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.1  1.1       1.1        1.11
London 1324 1491 1324 1184 1158 1094 1128 1098 1084 1065 1057 1143 1013  899  827 1028 1085  909  928 1021  952  818  999  961 1011  969  910  896  828       30204  London
  /av   1.1  1.2  1.1                                          1.2  1.1  0.9  0.8  1.1  1.1            1.1  1.1       1.1  1.1  1.2  1.1  1.1                  1.06
SE     2120 2696 2394 2237 2129 2014 1877 1841 1893 1843 1755 1834 1721 1563 1548 1862 1788 1559 1529 1844 1845 1437 1751 1638 1587 1600 1498 1581 1471       52455  SE    
  /av   1.1  1.3  1.2  1.1  1.2  1.1  1.1       1.1  1.0  1.1  1.1  1.1       0.9  1.2  1.1            1.2  1.3  1.1  1.2  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1        1.11
SW     1573 1874 1685 1561 1416 1399 1289 1404 1327 1224 1315 1304 1235 1038 1082 1444 1323 1126 1178 1267 1281  889 1164 1195 1141 1038 1047 1053 1037       36909  SW    
  /av   1.1  1.3  1.2  1.2  1.1  1.1       1.1  1.1       1.1  1.1  1.2  0.9       1.3  1.2  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.2       1.1  1.2  1.1                 1.1        1.12
Wales   979 1183  974  816  807  755  720  707  740  654  795  778  708  616  578  821  732  647  610  697  673  557  640  652  632  685  632  653  623       21064  Wales 
  /av   1.2  1.4  1.2       1.1                      0.9  1.1  1.2  1.1  0.9  0.9  1.2  1.1            1.1  1.1            1.1  1.1  1.2  1.1  1.1  1.1        1.09

Total
      1498317381158041413713412126721203111952120491141012133120521158410089 9978124201215210143103671165411111 883910940107001047210373 973610030 9659      340263        
  /av  1.23 1.26 1.20 1.11 1.10 1.06 1.03 1.04 1.08      1.08 1.14 1.14 0.98 0.95 1.18 1.16 1.02 1.08 1.14 1.12 1.08 1.10 1.14 1.11 1.12 1.06 1.08 1.06        1.10

Excess of English and Welsh deaths
       2785 3560 2592 1378 1211  752  406  409  870  -78  930 1486 1463 -214 -539 1931 1696  210  795 1466 1174  667  966 1284 1070 1081  553  781  568
Covid-19-associated deaths declared
        739  922  781  579  499  446  416  420  513  533  559  624  634  513  465  538  459  310  309  322  262  189  211  156  154  129   95   77   70

References:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv
See also
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/comparisonsofallcausemortalitybetweeneuropeancountriesandregions/januarytojune2020
https://www.conass.org.br/indicadores-de-obitos-por-causas-naturais/
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covidhttps://elifesciences.org/articles/69336
https://github.com/akarlinsky/world_mortality


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5.8.23