Elaborate tables, daily updated, purport to
show the progress of the
Covid-19 pandemic around the world. They have
always been confusing, and
by March 2020 it was already apparent that they
did not give an accurate
picture of the problems being faced. They depend
on diagnoses; diagnosis
has never been an exact science, and from the
beginning it has been plain
that the majority of serious cases of the disease
are associated with
other potentially lethal conditions. It seems
that in those countries so
badly affected that mortality from Covid-19 could
be expected to show up in
overall counts of deaths, there was generally
significant underestimation
of its effects, at least to begin with.
In the UK, the Office of National
Statistics has for some years been providing
numbers of deaths registered each week, in two
tables, one divided by sex and
age of the deceased, and one divided by region.
It is therefore possible to
compare the 2020-2023 figures with those of previous
years. Below I give the
2023 figures so far available, together with the ratios
of these to the averages over 2015-2019. See
covid19.2020.htm,
covid19.2021.htm and
covid19.2022.htm
for the corresponding tables for 2020, 2021 and 2022.
For comparison with other countries see the last reference below.
Deaths in England and Wales in 2023, divided by week of registration, sex and age
compared with averages in 2015-2019 and coronavirus deaths declared for UK
Week ending
6.1 20.1 3.2 17.2 3.3 17.3 31.3 14.4 28.4 12.5 26.5 9.6 23.6 7.7 21.7 Total to date
Numbers of deaths in 2023, and ratios of these to average over the five years 2015-2019
(ratios left blank if difference not significant)
Males
<1 27 32 29 38 31 22 31 36 26 24 30 21 23 29 22 31 35 22 22 38 35 26 29 33 22 22 22 26 27 811 <1
/av 0.7
1-14 6 14 13 8 11 18 11 15 7 13 13 9 14 10 15 6 11 10 11 12 9 8 6 9 8 16 13 14 9 319 1-14
/av 0.5 0.5
15-44 161 217 256 222 218 236 227 243 244 213 244 214 203 180 183 198 244 183 205 222 234 170 213 194 237 211 201 233 181 6187 15-44
/av 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.15
45-64 879 1028 1041 1014 946 913 837 828 887 791 857 864 849 699 751 890 943 776 789 859 893 671 850 827 847 793 745 791 788 24646 45-64
/av 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.15
65-74 1169 1562 1352 1294 1144 1146 1144 1065 1065 1005 1123 1062 1041 926 922 1095 1124 890 981 1128 1045 821 1028 1018 983 988 901 996 898 30916 65-74
/av 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.05
75-84 2255 2645 2472 2192 2154 1951 1839 1899 1948 1755 1939 1947 1804 1628 1570 2058 1886 1596 1641 1893 1859 1408 1773 1721 1647 1726 1607 1541 1553 53907 75-84
/av 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.16
85+ 2588 2953 2621 2345 2184 2084 1956 1937 1976 1901 2020 1991 1888 1737 1641 2061 1923 1610 1671 1845 1762 1422 1740 1741 1689 1584 1497 1564 1509 55440 85+
/av 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.16
Females
<1 17 23 21 18 28 23 29 19 25 17 17 20 22 16 20 27 17 22 12 24 15 20 21 23 28 21 16 20 15 596 <1
/av 0.6 0.92
1-14 8 10 8 10 11 4 6 8 8 12 10 15 9 8 5 10 8 8 3 11 6 9 10 11 7 7 6 10 7 245 1-14
/av 0.4 1.8 0.3
15-44 121 148 148 131 138 104 105 133 96 145 116 136 125 112 93 123 131 117 112 116 133 107 125 104 104 114 137 126 117 3517 15-44
/av 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.18
45-64 639 770 682 637 593 557 526 577 545 543 584 548 519 457 453 588 608 480 475 543 550 443 504 520 559 529 526 540 480 15975 45-64
/av 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.10
65-74 956 1047 1011 882 865 827 765 778 780 763 779 791 765 648 690 783 796 618 648 741 728 598 687 734 672 706 656 641 659 22014 65-74
/av 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.04
75-84 2180 2449 2143 1923 1838 1717 1716 1625 1613 1515 1623 1574 1579 1410 1364 1688 1642 1431 1416 1566 1437 1268 1510 1427 1422 1411 1335 1400 1295 46517 75-84
/av 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.13
85+ 3977 4483 4007 3423 3251 3070 2839 2789 2829 2713 2778 2860 2743 2229 2249 2862 2784 2380 2381 2656 2405 1868 2444 2338 2247 2245 2074 2128 2121 79173 85+
/av 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.03
Regions (North East, North West, Yorkshire & Humberside, East Midlands, West Midlands, East, London, South East, South West, Wales)
NE 788 947 837 727 664 654 645 614 617 585 607 571 602 564 573 698 656 538 533 570 549 475 592 551 532 581 526 534 492 17822 NE
/av 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.10
NW 2177 2330 2224 1937 1789 1644 1633 1566 1608 1621 1655 1635 1570 1367 1402 1627 1647 1339 1411 1548 1503 1153 1378 1463 1358 1385 1306 1291 1297 45864 NW
/av 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.11
Y & H 1555 1771 1557 1348 1223 1250 1084 1155 1136 1059 1179 1164 1152 1052 950 1229 1161 1015 1031 1196 1070 828 1090 1061 991 1028 924 1018 998 33275 Y & H
/av 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.10
E Mid 1346 1399 1368 1223 1229 1048 1062 1034 1044 969 1128 1059 1045 841 880 1057 1101 903 859 998 962 762 946 914 949 888 767 852 815 29448 E Mid
/av 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.12
W Mid 1529 1811 1719 1554 1472 1413 1251 1180 1248 1123 1291 1217 1270 995 1008 1311 1323 1038 1097 1227 1115 889 1147 1070 1051 1094 1018 1107 1030 35598 W Mid
/av 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.12
East 1564 1839 1690 1519 1500 1379 1312 1330 1329 1246 1328 1329 1248 1136 1106 1318 1313 1056 1163 1261 1125 1002 1210 1168 1187 1083 1083 1021 1043 36888 East
/av 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.11
London 1324 1491 1324 1184 1158 1094 1128 1098 1084 1065 1057 1143 1013 899 827 1028 1085 909 928 1021 952 818 999 961 1011 969 910 896 828 30204 London
/av 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.06
SE 2120 2696 2394 2237 2129 2014 1877 1841 1893 1843 1755 1834 1721 1563 1548 1862 1788 1559 1529 1844 1845 1437 1751 1638 1587 1600 1498 1581 1471 52455 SE
/av 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.11
SW 1573 1874 1685 1561 1416 1399 1289 1404 1327 1224 1315 1304 1235 1038 1082 1444 1323 1126 1178 1267 1281 889 1164 1195 1141 1038 1047 1053 1037 36909 SW
/av 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.12
Wales 979 1183 974 816 807 755 720 707 740 654 795 778 708 616 578 821 732 647 610 697 673 557 640 652 632 685 632 653 623 21064 Wales
/av 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.09
Total
1498317381158041413713412126721203111952120491141012133120521158410089 9978124201215210143103671165411111 883910940107001047210373 973610030 9659 340263
/av 1.23 1.26 1.20 1.11 1.10 1.06 1.03 1.04 1.08 1.08 1.14 1.14 0.98 0.95 1.18 1.16 1.02 1.08 1.14 1.12 1.08 1.10 1.14 1.11 1.12 1.06 1.08 1.06 1.10
Excess of English and Welsh deaths
2785 3560 2592 1378 1211 752 406 409 870 -78 930 1486 1463 -214 -539 1931 1696 210 795 1466 1174 667 966 1284 1070 1081 553 781 568
Covid-19-associated deaths declared
739 922 781 579 499 446 416 420 513 533 559 624 634 513 465 538 459 310 309 322 262 189 211 156 154 129 95 77 70
References:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv
See also
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/comparisonsofallcausemortalitybetweeneuropeancountriesandregions/januarytojune2020
https://www.conass.org.br/indicadores-de-obitos-por-causas-naturais/
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covidhttps://elifesciences.org/articles/69336
https://github.com/akarlinsky/world_mortality
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5.8.23