The Covid-19 toll, 2023

Elaborate tables, daily updated, purport to show the progress of the Covid-19 pandemic around the world. They have always been confusing, and by March 2020 it was already apparent that they did not give an accurate picture of the problems being faced. They depend on diagnoses; diagnosis has never been an exact science, and from the beginning it has been plain that the majority of serious cases of the disease are associated with other potentially lethal conditions. It seems that in those countries so badly affected that mortality from Covid-19 could be expected to show up in overall counts of deaths, there was generally significant underestimation of its effects, at least to begin with.

In the UK, the Office of National Statistics has for some years been providing numbers of deaths registered each week, in two tables, one divided by sex and age of the deceased, and one divided by region. It is therefore possible to compare the 2020-2023 figures with those of previous years. Below I give the 2023 figures so far available, together with the ratios of these to the averages over 2015-2019. See covid19.2020.htm, covid19.2021.htm and covid19.2022.htm for the corresponding tables for 2020, 2021 and 2022.

For comparison with other countries see the last reference below.


Deaths in England and Wales in 2023, divided by week of registration, sex and age
     compared with averages in 2015-2019 and coronavirus deaths declared for UK

Week ending
        6.1      20.1     Total to date  

Numbers of deaths in 2021, and ratios of these to average over the five years 2015-2019
     (ratios left blank if difference not significant)
Males
   <1    27   32   29          88     <1 
  /av                
  1-14    6   14   13          33    1-14
  /av                
 15-44  161  217  256         634   15-44
  /av   1.2       1.2        1.18
 45-64  879 1028 1041        2948   45-64
  /av   1.2  1.2  1.3        1.21
 65-74 1169 1562 1352        4083   65-74
  /av   1.1  1.2  1.1        1.15
 75-84 2255 2645 2472        7372   75-84
  /av   1.3  1.3  1.3        1.29
   85+ 2588 2953 2621        8162     85+
  /av   1.3  1.3  1.2        1.30

Females
   <1    17   23   21          61     <1 
  /av                
  1-14    8   10    8          26    1-14
  /av                
 15-44  121  148  148         417   15-44
  /av   1.3  1.4  1.4        1.35
 45-64  639  770  682        2091   45-64
  /av   1.2  1.3  1.2        1.23
 65-74  956 1047 1011        3014   65-74
  /av   1.1  1.1  1.2        1.14
 75-84 2180 2449 2143        6772   75-84
  /av   1.3  1.3  1.2        1.27
   85+ 3977 4483 4007       12467     85+
  /av   1.2  1.2  1.1        1.18

Regions (North East, North West, Yorkshire & Humberside, East Midlands, West Midlands, East, London, South East, South West, Wales)
NE      788  947  837        2572  NE    
  /av   1.2  1.3  1.2        1.24
NW     2177 2330 2224        6731  NW    
  /av   1.2  1.3  1.3        1.27
Y & H  1555 1771 1557        4883  Y & H 
  /av   1.2  1.3  1.2        1.24
E Mid  1346 1399 1368        4113  E Mid 
  /av   1.2  1.2  1.2        1.23
W Mid  1529 1811 1719        5059  W Mid 
  /av   1.1  1.3  1.3        1.23
East   1564 1839 1690        5093  East  
  /av   1.1  1.2  1.2        1.19
London 1324 1491 1324        4139  London
  /av   1.1  1.2  1.1        1.14
SE     2120 2696 2394        7210  SE    
  /av   1.1  1.3  1.2        1.17
SW     1573 1874 1685        5132  SW    
  /av   1.1  1.3  1.2        1.23
Wales   979 1183  974        3136  Wales 
  /av   1.2  1.4  1.2        1.28

Total
      149831738115804       48168        
  /av  1.23 1.26 1.20        1.23

Excess of English and Welsh deaths
       2785 3560 2592
Covid-19-associated deaths declared
        739  922  781

References:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv
See also
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/comparisonsofallcausemortalitybetweeneuropeancountriesandregions/januarytojune2020
https://www.conass.org.br/indicadores-de-obitos-por-causas-naturais/
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covidhttps://elifesciences.org/articles/69336
https://github.com/akarlinsky/world_mortality


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31.1.23