The Covid-19 toll, 2022

Elaborate tables, daily updated, purport to show the progress of the Covid-19 pandemic around the world. They have always been confusing, and by March 2020 it was already apparent that they did not give an accurate picture of the problems being faced. They depend on diagnoses; diagnosis has never been an exact science, and from the beginning it has been plain that the majority of serious cases of the disease are associated with other potentially lethal conditions. It seems that in those countries so badly affected that mortality from Covid-19 could be expected to show up in overall counts of deaths, there was generally significant underestimation of its effects, at least to begin with.

In the UK, the Office of National Statistics has for some years been providing numbers of deaths registered each week, in two tables, one divided by sex and age of the deceased, and one divided by region. It is therefore possible to compare the 2020-2021 figures with those of previous years. Below I give the 2021 figures so far available, together with the ratios of these to the averages over 2015-2019. See covid19.2020.htm covid19.2021.htm for the corresponding tables for 2020 and 2021.

For comparison with other countries see the last reference below.


Deaths in England and Wales in 2022, divided by week of registration, sex and age
     compared with averages in 2015-2019 and coronavirus deaths declared for UK

Week ending
        7.1      21.1       4.2      18.2       4.3      18.3       1.4      15.4     Total to date  

Numbers of deaths in 2021, and ratios of these to average over the five years 2015-2019
     (ratios left blank if difference not significant)
Males
   <1    30   30   28   28   26   25   26   26   32   23   25   25   21   26   19         390     <1 
  /av                                                                                    0.87
  1-14    7    5    9   10   13   13   15   11   10   12   10    7   10   14    8         154    1-14
  /av        0.4                                                                 
 15-44  170  217  217  203  191  179  228  197  205  217  220  201  197  192  173        3007   15-44
  /av   1.3                           1.2                 1.2                            1.07
 45-64  852  983  929  915  977  826  852  809  839  851  810  808  724  741  664       12580   45-64
  /av   1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.2                 1.1  1.1                      0.9        1.08
 65-74 1132 1229 1295 1154 1113 1116 1048 1057 1071 1053 1065  962  898 1003  935       16131   65-74
  /av             1.1                                                         0.9
 75-84 1880 2100 1970 1965 1839 1825 1753 1695 1717 1681 1706 1759 1493 1673 1603       26659   75-84
  /av        1.0       1.1                                     1.1       1.1             1.03
   85+ 1974 2252 2099 2039 1951 1860 1794 1875 1810 1810 1823 1807 1577 1800 1667       28138     85+
  /av                                                     1.1  1.1       1.1             1.02

Females
   <1    19   19   14   16   15   25   25   17   20   25   22   20   14   13    8         272     <1 
  /av        0.6                                                    0.6       0.4        0.81
  1-14    7   13    6   12    3   16    5    4    5   16   12   11   10    4    8         132    1-14
  /av                                      0.4                                   
 15-44  114  113  144  117  105  127  135  113  109  107   97  108  111  100   93        1693   15-44
  /av   1.2       1.3                 1.2                                                1.09
 45-64  597  616  591  590  588  539  512  525  534  526  457  510  492  523  495        8095   45-64
  /av   1.1                                               0.9                            1.03
 65-74  837  880  865  748  797  736  759  710  704  741  754  682  648  689  638       11188   65-74
  /av                  0.9       0.9       0.9  0.9                           0.9        0.95
 75-84 1682 1778 1698 1656 1537 1556 1497 1501 1574 1569 1442 1443 1344 1425 1315       23017   75-84
  /av        0.9  1.0       0.9                                               0.9        0.98
   85+ 2961 3076 2911 2948 2707 2715 2622 2610 2595 2596 2484 2402 2301 2484 2293       39705     85+
  /av   0.9  0.8  0.8  0.9  0.8  0.9  0.9  0.9  0.9  0.9  0.9  0.9  0.9       0.9        0.88

Regions (North East, North West, Yorkshire & Humberside, East Midlands, West Midlands, East, London, South East, South West, Wales)
NE      619  697  660  646  678  651  634  532  596  596  613  580  545  573  554        9174  NE    
  /av                                      0.9                 1.1               
NW     1716 1765 1778 1552 1621 1515 1571 1571 1447 1535 1510 1473 1364 1437 1367       23222  NW    
  /av                  0.9                                                    0.9
Y & H  1316 1291 1258 1307 1204 1141 1080 1060 1051 1090 1056 1068 1023 1154  979       17078  Y & H 
  /av                  1.1            0.9  0.9                      1.1  1.1  0.9
E Mid  1098 1158 1031 1046 1006 1012 1040  993  988  924  908  888  783  857  862       14594  E Mid 
  /av                                 1.1                           0.9          
W Mid  1291 1403 1370 1405 1245 1247 1216 1174 1101 1221 1088 1098  977 1165 1019       18020  W Mid 
  /av   0.9            1.1                      0.9       0.9            1.1  0.9
East   1248 1471 1396 1272 1230 1264 1153 1169 1202 1171 1155 1125 1030 1114 1121       18121  East  
  /av   0.9            0.9  0.9       0.9  0.9                                0.9        0.95
London 1112 1337 1215 1183 1090 1073  964  993 1005 1004  969  958  869  985  889       15646  London
  /av   0.9  1.1                      0.9  0.9            0.9                 0.9        0.97
SE     1750 1980 1998 1921 1866 1687 1646 1772 1841 1735 1654 1716 1501 1541 1433       26041  SE    
  /av   0.9  0.9                 0.9  0.9       1.1            1.1            0.9        0.97
SW     1320 1297 1306 1321 1198 1283 1303 1193 1229 1206 1291 1145 1036 1163 1097       18388  SW    
  /av        0.9            0.9       1.1  0.9                                           0.99
Wales   776  884  743  729  705  672  648  677  752  719  669  675  690  681  579       10599  Wales 
  /av                  0.9       0.9  0.9       1.1       0.9                 0.9        0.97

Total
      122621331112776124011186211558112711115011225112271092710745 984010687 9919      171161        
  /av       0.96 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97      0.98 0.98      0.97 1.04 0.94        0.98

Excess of English and Welsh deaths
         64 -510 -436 -358 -339 -362 -354 -393   46 -261 -276  179 -281  384 -598
Covid-19-associated deaths declared
        922 1382 1484 1385 1242 1066  863  766  670  671  683  780  853  960 1003

References:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv
See also
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/comparisonsofallcausemortalitybetweeneuropeancountriesandregions/januarytojune2020
https://www.conass.org.br/indicadores-de-obitos-por-causas-naturais/
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covidhttps://elifesciences.org/articles/69336
https://github.com/akarlinsky/world_mortality


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30.4.22