The Covid-19 toll, 2022

Elaborate tables, daily updated, purport to show the progress of the Covid-19 pandemic around the world. They have always been confusing, and by March 2020 it was already apparent that they did not give an accurate picture of the problems being faced. They depend on diagnoses; diagnosis has never been an exact science, and from the beginning it has been plain that the majority of serious cases of the disease are associated with other potentially lethal conditions. It seems that in those countries so badly affected that mortality from Covid-19 could be expected to show up in overall counts of deaths, there was generally significant underestimation of its effects, at least to begin with.

In the UK, the Office of National Statistics has for some years been providing numbers of deaths registered each week, in two tables, one divided by sex and age of the deceased, and one divided by region. It is therefore possible to compare the 2020-2021 figures with those of previous years. Below I give the 2021 figures so far available, together with the ratios of these to the averages over 2015-2019. See covid19.2020.htm covid19.2021.htm for the corresponding tables for 2020 and 2021.

For comparison with other countries see the last reference below.


Deaths in England and Wales in 2022, divided by week of registration, sex and age
     compared with averages in 2015-2019 and coronavirus deaths declared for UK

Week ending
        7.1      21.1       4.2      18.2       4.3      18.3       1.4      15.4      29.4      13.5      27.5      10.6      24.6       8.7      22.7       5.8      19.8       2.9      16.9     Total to date  

Numbers of deaths in 2021, and ratios of these to average over the five years 2015-2019
     (ratios left blank if difference not significant)
Males
   <1    30   30   28   28   26   25   26   26   32   23   25   25   21   26   19   22   23   26   28   32   34   19   31   33   29   30   27   29   29   28   22   31   25   29   16   30   29         992     <1 
  /av                                                                                                                                                                             0.6                  0.91
  1-14    7    5    9   10   13   13   15   11   10   12   10    7   10   14    8   12   14   10    5    9   12    5    6   16    8   10   11    6    9    9    8    5   13   11    9   13   18         373    1-14
  /av        0.4                                                                                                 0.5  0.5                                                                   2.6
 15-44  170  217  217  203  191  179  228  197  205  217  220  201  197  192  173  178  201  140  191  181  189  107  214  218  210  213  201  209  199  198  199  210  225  215  173  189  209        7276   15-44
  /av   1.3                           1.2                 1.2                                0.7                 0.8       1.2                                          1.2  1.2            1.2        1.07
 45-64  852  983  929  915  977  826  852  809  839  851  810  808  724  741  664  726  815  731  846  860  829  529  842  816  829  758  812  796  808  784  771  738  843  764  675  861  818       29831   45-64
  /av   1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.2                 1.1  1.1                      0.9       1.1       1.3  1.1  1.1  0.9  1.2  1.2  1.2       1.2  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.1       1.2  1.1  1.1  1.3  1.2        1.11
 65-74 1132 1229 1295 1154 1113 1116 1048 1057 1071 1053 1065  962  898 1003  935  979 1123  905 1136 1122 1004  678 1073 1027 1079  987  968  950 1068 1005 1033 1013 1032 1052  836 1015  988       38204   65-74
  /av             1.1                                                         0.9       1.1       1.2  1.1       0.8  1.1  1.1  1.2                 1.2  1.1  1.2  1.1  1.1  1.2       1.1             1.04
 75-84 1880 2100 1970 1965 1839 1825 1753 1695 1717 1681 1706 1759 1493 1673 1603 1630 2028 1599 1991 1822 1694 1097 1831 1757 1650 1570 1634 1628 1738 1646 1710 1687 1673 1719 1359 1721 1675       63518   75-84
  /av        1.0       1.1                                     1.1       1.1            1.3  1.1  1.4  1.2  1.1  0.9  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.3  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.1  1.2  1.2        1.11
   85+ 1974 2252 2099 2039 1951 1860 1794 1875 1810 1810 1823 1807 1577 1800 1667 1777 2054 1665 1933 1793 1815 1050 1869 1732 1701 1650 1616 1682 1811 1805 1655 1635 1771 1704 1437 1723 1728       65744     85+
  /av                                                     1.1  1.1       1.1       1.1  1.3  1.1  1.3  1.2  1.2  0.9  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.3  1.4  1.2  1.2  1.3  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.2        1.12

Females
   <1    19   19   14   16   15   25   25   17   20   25   22   20   14   13    8   17   20   13   19   20   21   22   16   20   17   24   18   17   25   22   17   17   23   23   14   27   18         702     <1 
  /av        0.6                                                    0.6       0.4                                                                                  0.6                      0.7        0.85
  1-14    7   13    6   12    3   16    5    4    5   16   12   11   10    4    8    4    5    4   14    5    8   12    5   15   14    7    9    7    8   17    6    3    9   11    4    6    8         313    1-14
  /av                                      0.4                                                                             1.9  1.9                      3.3                                   
 15-44  114  113  144  117  105  127  135  113  109  107   97  108  111  100   93   88  131   90  120  123  117   76  131  118  138  118  101  122  102   98  110  105   96  100   92  120  119        4108   15-44
  /av   1.2       1.3                 1.2                                          0.8  1.2                           1.2  1.2  1.4            1.3                                     1.3             1.10
 45-64  597  616  591  590  588  539  512  525  534  526  457  510  492  523  495  464  575  455  547  564  528  373  634  531  527  502  501  534  525  510  566  501  559  579  418  540  565       19593   45-64
  /av   1.1                                               0.9                      0.9  1.1       1.1  1.1       0.9  1.3  1.1  1.1            1.2  1.1  1.1  1.3  1.1  1.2  1.3       1.2  1.2        1.08
 65-74  837  880  865  748  797  736  759  710  704  741  754  682  648  689  638  732  806  639  793  777  721  466  811  710  742  757  728  683  715  734  702  665  698  731  606  742  754       26900   65-74
  /av                  0.9       0.9       0.9  0.9                           0.9       1.1       1.2  1.1       0.8  1.1       1.1  1.1  1.1       1.1  1.1  1.1       1.1  1.1       1.2  1.1        1.02
 75-84 1682 1778 1698 1656 1537 1556 1497 1501 1574 1569 1442 1443 1344 1425 1315 1505 1646 1399 1592 1546 1479  920 1570 1512 1466 1434 1392 1450 1453 1492 1389 1396 1484 1482 1213 1375 1434       54646   75-84
  /av        0.9  1.0       0.9                                               0.9  1.1  1.2  1.1  1.3  1.1  1.1  0.8  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.3  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.1  1.1  1.2        1.08
   85+ 2961 3076 2911 2948 2707 2715 2622 2610 2595 2596 2484 2402 2301 2484 2293 2546 3000 2265 2833 2666 2409 1471 2709 2339 2426 2297 2214 2402 2488 2665 2510 2349 2531 2522 2016 2391 2310       93064     85+
  /av   0.9  0.8  0.8  0.9  0.8  0.9  0.9  0.9  0.9  0.9  0.9  0.9  0.9       0.9       1.2  1.0  1.2  1.1       0.8  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1       1.1  1.2  1.3  1.2  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.0  1.1  1.1        0.99

Regions (North East, North West, Yorkshire & Humberside, East Midlands, West Midlands, East, London, South East, South West, Wales)
NE      619  697  660  646  678  651  634  532  596  596  613  580  545  573  554  526  620  522  606  558  532  352  585  580  557  560  557  527  562  559  600  523  510  528  443  528  579       21088  NE    
  /av                                      0.9                 1.1                      1.1       1.1            0.8  1.1  1.2  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.1  1.1  1.2  1.2            1.1            1.2        1.05
NW     1716 1765 1778 1552 1621 1515 1571 1571 1447 1535 1510 1473 1364 1437 1367 1501 1724 1314 1614 1522 1456  974 1528 1435 1436 1426 1396 1410 1475 1489 1415 1318 1620 1451 1173 1459 1437       54795  NW    
  /av                  0.9                                                    0.9  1.1  1.2       1.2  1.1  1.1  0.8  1.2  1.1  1.1  1.2  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.1  1.1  1.3  1.2  1.1  1.2  1.2        1.07
Y & H  1316 1291 1258 1307 1204 1141 1080 1060 1051 1090 1056 1068 1023 1154  979 1041 1280  999 1180 1083 1025  621 1101 1117 1098 1017  975 1050 1100 1069  960 1029 1087 1101  835 1021  995       39862  Y & H 
  /av                  1.1            0.9  0.9                      1.1  1.1  0.9       1.3       1.2  1.1  1.1  0.7  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.3  1.2  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.2       1.1  1.1        1.07
E Mid  1098 1158 1031 1046 1006 1012 1040  993  988  924  908  888  783  857  862  999 1062  841 1071 1015  907  583 1017  952  981  905  915  862 1006  972  913  910  956  931  780  896  879       34947  E Mid 
  /av                                 1.1                           0.9            1.1  1.2       1.2  1.2  1.1  0.8  1.2  1.2  1.3  1.1  1.2  1.1  1.3  1.3  1.2  1.2  1.3  1.2  1.2  1.1  1.1        1.08
W Mid  1291 1403 1370 1405 1245 1247 1216 1174 1101 1221 1088 1098  977 1165 1019 1070 1259 1044 1323 1231 1159  662 1195 1035 1079 1032 1070 1039 1151 1129 1132 1050 1100 1146  994 1136 1124       42180  W Mid 
  /av   0.9            1.1                      0.9       0.9            1.1  0.9       1.2       1.3  1.2  1.2  0.8  1.2  1.1  1.1       1.1  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.3  1.2  1.2        1.07
East   1248 1471 1396 1272 1230 1264 1153 1169 1202 1171 1155 1125 1030 1114 1121 1175 1249 1075 1246 1286 1233  784 1243 1214 1177 1161 1074 1178 1118 1227 1231 1175 1137 1211  939 1224 1161       43639  East  
  /av   0.9            0.9  0.9       0.9  0.9                                0.9  1.1  1.1       1.2  1.2  1.2  0.9  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.3  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.1  1.2  1.2        1.06
London 1112 1337 1215 1183 1090 1073  964  993 1005 1004  969  958  869  985  889  925 1049  844 1106  984  963  587 1089  957 1013 1002  900  893 1003 1001  953  895  977  941  805  955  977       36465  London
  /av   0.9  1.1                      0.9  0.9            0.9                 0.9       1.1       1.2  1.1  1.1  0.7  1.2  1.1  1.2  1.1  1.1       1.2  1.2  1.1       1.1  1.1            1.1        1.03
SE     1750 1980 1998 1921 1866 1687 1646 1772 1841 1735 1654 1716 1501 1541 1433 1563 1895 1557 1796 1806 1724 1084 1904 1719 1606 1611 1605 1717 1669 1703 1713 1621 1602 1740 1369 1628 1703       62376  SE    
  /av   0.9  0.9                 0.9  0.9       1.1            1.1            0.9       1.2       1.2  1.2  1.2  0.8  1.3  1.2  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.3  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.1  1.1  1.2        1.07
SW     1320 1297 1306 1321 1198 1283 1303 1193 1229 1206 1291 1145 1036 1163 1097 1192 1465 1140 1352 1294 1146  725 1298 1153 1196 1020 1108 1188 1232 1172 1103 1149 1297 1198  956 1211 1141       44124  SW    
  /av        0.9            0.9       1.1  0.9                                     1.1  1.3  1.1  1.3  1.2  1.1  0.8  1.2  1.1  1.2       1.1  1.2  1.3  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.3  1.2  1.1  1.2  1.1        1.08
Wales   776  884  743  729  705  672  648  677  752  719  669  675  690  681  579  668  818  591  732  720  686  435  756  658  670  593  609  621  631  660  664  661  665  668  552  666  656       24979  Wales 
  /av                  0.9       0.9  0.9       1.1       0.9                 0.9       1.2       1.2  1.1  1.1  0.8  1.3  1.1  1.2       1.1       1.2  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.1       1.2  1.1        1.05

Total
      122621331112776124011186211558112711115011225112271092710745 984010687 99191068012441 9941120481152010860 6825117421084410836103571023210515109781101310698103551098210942 88681075310673      405264        
  /av       0.96 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97      0.98 0.98      0.97 1.04 0.94      1.19      1.26 1.13 1.09 0.84 1.18 1.15 1.15 1.11 1.11 1.14 1.21 1.22 1.18 1.14 1.21 1.19 1.08 1.17 1.15        1.06

Excess of English and Welsh deaths
         64 -510 -436 -358 -339 -362 -354 -393   46 -261 -276  179 -281  384 -598  191 1985    8 2476 1332  923-1347 1768 1428 1434 1065 1049 1266 1887 1962 1666 1255 1896 1784  629 1572 1367
Covid-19-associated deaths declared
        922 1382 1484 1385 1242 1066  863  766  670  671  683  780  853  960 1003 1042 1125  735  719  547  410  186  284  264  285  332  423  585  745  810  723  592  551  453  314  365  301

References:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv
See also
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/comparisonsofallcausemortalitybetweeneuropeancountriesandregions/januarytojune2020
https://www.conass.org.br/indicadores-de-obitos-por-causas-naturais/
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covidhttps://elifesciences.org/articles/69336
https://github.com/akarlinsky/world_mortality


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29.9.22