Elaborate tables, daily updated, purport to
show the progress of the
Covid-19 pandemic around the world. They have
always been confusing, and
by March 2020 it was already apparent that they
did not give an accurate
picture of the problems being faced. They depend
on diagnoses; diagnosis
has never been an exact science, and from the
beginning it has been plain
that the majority of serious cases of the disease
are associated with
other potentially lethal conditions. It seems
that in those countries so
badly affected that mortality from Covid-19 could
be expected to show up in
overall counts of deaths, there was generally
significant underestimation
of its effects, at least to begin with.
In the UK, the Office of National
Statistics has for some years been providing
numbers of deaths registered each week, in two
tables, one divided by sex and
age of the deceased, and one divided by region.
It is therefore possible to
compare the 2020-2021 figures with those of previous
years. Below I give the
2021 figures so far available, together with the ratios
of these to the averages over 2015-2019. See
covid19.2020.htm
covid19.2021.htm
for the corresponding tables for 2020 and 2021.
For comparison with other countries see the last reference below.
Deaths in England and Wales in 2022, divided by week of registration, sex and age
compared with averages in 2015-2019 and coronavirus deaths declared for UK
Week ending
7.1 21.1 4.2 18.2 4.3 18.3 1.4 15.4 Total to date
Numbers of deaths in 2021, and ratios of these to average over the five years 2015-2019
(ratios left blank if difference not significant)
Males
<1 30 30 28 28 26 25 26 26 32 23 25 25 21 26 19 390 <1
/av 0.87
1-14 7 5 9 10 13 13 15 11 10 12 10 7 10 14 8 154 1-14
/av 0.4
15-44 170 217 217 203 191 179 228 197 205 217 220 201 197 192 173 3007 15-44
/av 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.07
45-64 852 983 929 915 977 826 852 809 839 851 810 808 724 741 664 12580 45-64
/av 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.08
65-74 1132 1229 1295 1154 1113 1116 1048 1057 1071 1053 1065 962 898 1003 935 16131 65-74
/av 1.1 0.9
75-84 1880 2100 1970 1965 1839 1825 1753 1695 1717 1681 1706 1759 1493 1673 1603 26659 75-84
/av 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.03
85+ 1974 2252 2099 2039 1951 1860 1794 1875 1810 1810 1823 1807 1577 1800 1667 28138 85+
/av 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.02
Females
<1 19 19 14 16 15 25 25 17 20 25 22 20 14 13 8 272 <1
/av 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.81
1-14 7 13 6 12 3 16 5 4 5 16 12 11 10 4 8 132 1-14
/av 0.4
15-44 114 113 144 117 105 127 135 113 109 107 97 108 111 100 93 1693 15-44
/av 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.09
45-64 597 616 591 590 588 539 512 525 534 526 457 510 492 523 495 8095 45-64
/av 1.1 0.9 1.03
65-74 837 880 865 748 797 736 759 710 704 741 754 682 648 689 638 11188 65-74
/av 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.95
75-84 1682 1778 1698 1656 1537 1556 1497 1501 1574 1569 1442 1443 1344 1425 1315 23017 75-84
/av 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.98
85+ 2961 3076 2911 2948 2707 2715 2622 2610 2595 2596 2484 2402 2301 2484 2293 39705 85+
/av 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.88
Regions (North East, North West, Yorkshire & Humberside, East Midlands, West Midlands, East, London, South East, South West, Wales)
NE 619 697 660 646 678 651 634 532 596 596 613 580 545 573 554 9174 NE
/av 0.9 1.1
NW 1716 1765 1778 1552 1621 1515 1571 1571 1447 1535 1510 1473 1364 1437 1367 23222 NW
/av 0.9 0.9
Y & H 1316 1291 1258 1307 1204 1141 1080 1060 1051 1090 1056 1068 1023 1154 979 17078 Y & H
/av 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9
E Mid 1098 1158 1031 1046 1006 1012 1040 993 988 924 908 888 783 857 862 14594 E Mid
/av 1.1 0.9
W Mid 1291 1403 1370 1405 1245 1247 1216 1174 1101 1221 1088 1098 977 1165 1019 18020 W Mid
/av 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9
East 1248 1471 1396 1272 1230 1264 1153 1169 1202 1171 1155 1125 1030 1114 1121 18121 East
/av 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.95
London 1112 1337 1215 1183 1090 1073 964 993 1005 1004 969 958 869 985 889 15646 London
/av 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.97
SE 1750 1980 1998 1921 1866 1687 1646 1772 1841 1735 1654 1716 1501 1541 1433 26041 SE
/av 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.97
SW 1320 1297 1306 1321 1198 1283 1303 1193 1229 1206 1291 1145 1036 1163 1097 18388 SW
/av 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.99
Wales 776 884 743 729 705 672 648 677 752 719 669 675 690 681 579 10599 Wales
/av 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.97
Total
122621331112776124011186211558112711115011225112271092710745 984010687 9919 171161
/av 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.97 1.04 0.94 0.98
Excess of English and Welsh deaths
64 -510 -436 -358 -339 -362 -354 -393 46 -261 -276 179 -281 384 -598
Covid-19-associated deaths declared
922 1382 1484 1385 1242 1066 863 766 670 671 683 780 853 960 1003
References:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv
See also
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/comparisonsofallcausemortalitybetweeneuropeancountriesandregions/januarytojune2020
https://www.conass.org.br/indicadores-de-obitos-por-causas-naturais/
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covidhttps://elifesciences.org/articles/69336
https://github.com/akarlinsky/world_mortality
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30.4.22