Elaborate tables, daily updated, purport to
show the progress of the
Covid-19 pandemic around the world. They have
always been confusing, and
by March 2020 it was already apparent that they
did not give an accurate
picture of the problems being faced. They depend
on diagnoses; diagnosis
has never been an exact science, and from the
beginning it has been plain
that the majority of serious cases of the disease
are associated with
other potentially lethal conditions. It seems
that in those countries so
badly affected that mortality from Covid-19 could
be expected to show up in
overall counts of deaths, there was generally
significant underestimation
of its effects, at least to begin with.
In the UK, the Office of National
Statistics has for some years been providing
numbers of deaths registered each week, in two
tables, one divided by sex and
age of the deceased, and one divided by region.
It is therefore possible to
compare the 2020-2021 figures with those of previous
years. Below I give the
2021 figures so far available, together with the ratios
of these to the averages over 2015-2019. See
covid19.2020.htm
for the corresponding table for 2020.
For comparison with other European countries see the last reference below.
Deaths in England and Wales in 2021, divided by week of registration, sex and age
compared with averages over 2015-2019 and coronavirus deaths declared for UK
Week ending
8.1 22.1 5.2 19.2 5.3 19.3 2.4 16.4 30.4 14.5 28.5 11.6 25.6 9.7 23.7 6.8 20.8 3.9 17.9 1.10 15.10 29.10 12.11 26.11 10.12 25.12 Total to date
Numbers of deaths in 2021, and ratios of these to average over the five years 2015-2019
(ratios left blank if difference not significant)
Males
<1 27 31 24 37 29 29 21 39 29 40 21 32 22 23 24 26 19 25 26 34 29 29 32 26 17 14 27 27 29 34 21 21 25 27 16 25 31 28 27 30 20 25 29 32 44 26 26 32 30 30 33 17 17 1434 <1
/av 1.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.7 0.93
1-14 6 8 7 10 7 7 10 5 5 8 6 6 8 7 12 3 5 7 9 10 13 7 8 8 7 9 7 9 8 8 5 12 7 12 10 5 3 10 10 14 10 14 8 12 9 6 13 9 14 6 8 6 6 439 1-14
/av 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.80
15-44 187 229 259 250 231 265 223 198 245 219 195 201 192 180 211 203 170 183 182 237 210 150 219 194 177 179 210 202 197 204 208 210 217 213 161 234 181 219 214 238 209 214 187 213 221 224 226 250 209 238 256 112 112 10968 15-44
/av 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.13
45-64 1201 1289 1350 1331 1238 1199 1108 999 943 941 900 823 660 711 867 872 777 613 832 822 780 663 804 763 723 749 747 779 767 809 837 819 753 829 662 859 847 807 867 793 888 894 848 860 893 896 847 917 849 920 980 595 595 46115 45-64
/av 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.8 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.22
65-74 1613 1775 1741 1788 1603 1500 1346 1240 1174 1078 1052 1006 775 897 1005 954 983 817 1021 927 929 741 981 934 899 920 971 958 961 983 1000 1021 979 1026 908 1139 1048 1089 1027 1100 1077 1070 1085 1192 1180 1167 1179 1168 1222 1136 1263 743 743 58134 65-74
/av 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.12
75-84 2877 2837 2965 2786 2674 2406 2137 1937 1756 1651 1528 1498 1227 1413 1595 1489 1512 1272 1535 1554 1497 1237 1597 1475 1315 1404 1523 1490 1465 1588 1544 1559 1550 1587 1339 1748 1693 1735 1574 1753 1718 1816 1707 1785 1868 1885 1767 1730 1809 1932 2014 1242 1242 91837 75-84
/av 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.13
85+ 3011 3038 3194 3125 2865 2440 2182 2002 1787 1639 1557 1545 1246 1345 1535 1456 1543 1244 1543 1517 1447 1237 1523 1358 1314 1289 1466 1462 1515 1534 1502 1593 1601 1537 1348 1672 1724 1574 1596 1662 1742 1786 1783 1768 1935 1890 1750 1766 1939 1981 2039 1410 1410 92967 85+
/av 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.12
Females
<1 25 21 24 22 11 28 15 25 23 24 26 24 16 21 18 24 16 17 29 18 19 19 32 21 22 17 23 20 22 18 22 24 18 11 19 17 19 17 16 25 20 15 21 27 27 26 25 26 28 17 18 11 11 1100 <1
/av 0.5 0.6 1.6 0.5 0.6 0.93
1-14 6 1 10 9 10 8 10 10 6 9 13 11 4 4 2 3 6 8 3 8 6 4 10 9 5 2 10 4 7 7 5 7 4 8 4 12 3 7 10 9 12 7 13 6 12 8 7 4 9 12 9 6 6 385 1-14
/av 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.88
15-44 116 158 157 150 145 147 124 113 111 115 110 119 96 112 125 128 120 78 98 109 133 74 103 116 96 113 111 113 116 110 111 121 103 104 101 107 101 126 125 97 114 123 107 107 134 109 132 130 106 129 125 56 56 6040 15-44
/av 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.7 1.13
45-64 777 812 852 812 777 727 725 634 598 585 554 522 446 482 529 516 491 404 491 531 491 392 512 541 430 467 520 540 502 518 558 529 515 511 480 568 557 579 559 553 578 594 565 492 593 567 589 592 590 604 615 430 430 29826 45-64
/av 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.16
65-74 1232 1169 1226 1146 1087 974 966 913 819 751 736 680 590 617 766 721 673 553 698 668 671 535 712 681 639 588 701 701 677 706 734 761 707 764 613 780 843 780 736 758 802 793 778 832 814 833 798 808 842 809 901 581 581 41244 65-74
/av 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.11
75-84 2392 2447 2359 2484 2233 1980 1814 1573 1486 1448 1359 1274 1079 1194 1396 1292 1255 1022 1344 1284 1249 986 1343 1230 1203 1163 1308 1239 1273 1349 1347 1369 1345 1348 1187 1478 1511 1358 1405 1450 1472 1400 1430 1584 1592 1599 1525 1550 1593 1650 1719 1154 1154 78278 75-84
/av 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.09
85+ 4281 4227 4508 4498 4282 3644 3128 2926 2610 2479 2254 2304 1840 2092 2353 2254 2122 1743 2353 2141 2154 1704 2328 2103 1843 1894 2128 2153 2205 2267 2293 2326 2189 2291 1949 2391 2448 2355 2344 2325 2515 2557 2426 2640 2728 2867 2583 2677 2690 2936 3033 2114 2114 135609 85+
/av 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.03
Regions (North East, North West, Yorkshire & Humberside, East Midlands, West Midlands, East, London, South East, South West, Wales)
NE 858 797 836 752 742 763 677 614 581 593 523 505 449 504 544 509 501 455 548 503 548 435 534 492 462 514 487 515 565 544 580 560 540 591 476 578 518 567 608 609 541 582 614 631 656 628 564 604 670 646 722 439 439 30713 NE
/av 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.08
NW 2090 2112 2202 2191 2162 2002 1920 1659 1564 1472 1457 1365 1125 1229 1351 1345 1281 1089 1282 1386 1431 1113 1355 1263 1200 1296 1326 1303 1309 1350 1358 1406 1424 1386 1269 1605 1529 1423 1416 1487 1565 1578 1564 1577 1669 1653 1543 1564 1588 1705 1791 1207 1207 79744 NW
/av 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.10
Y & H 1640 1408 1426 1485 1326 1274 1261 1196 1100 1037 1031 1016 848 930 1004 1001 943 775 1060 1006 903 784 1025 975 839 849 922 999 942 987 965 1099 1038 1064 928 1072 1101 1056 1005 992 1019 1149 1147 1180 1235 1266 1152 1221 1195 1204 1245 796 796 56917 Y & H
/av 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.08
E Mid 1414 1402 1496 1403 1406 1456 1244 1092 1091 999 891 929 655 850 944 849 814 700 921 850 830 641 874 893 726 728 821 777 901 869 866 950 958 900 789 923 948 953 900 885 1026 905 921 966 1007 1044 1013 1017 1118 1040 1104 753 753 51205 E Mid
/av 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.12
W Mid 1785 1820 1925 1926 1886 1670 1592 1401 1250 1182 1101 1075 881 888 1073 1057 982 788 1112 1038 968 804 1022 928 869 891 1099 1056 1039 1058 1103 1067 1027 1008 906 1152 1203 1098 1094 1171 1196 1201 1071 1155 1335 1275 1263 1229 1215 1333 1364 879 879 62390 W Mid
/av 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.13
East 2082 2240 2267 2350 2166 1866 1581 1403 1309 1225 1029 988 841 950 1153 1054 1062 841 1031 1013 992 783 1098 987 909 899 1092 1027 968 1060 1062 1091 995 1044 924 1112 1128 1157 1095 1074 1167 1194 1125 1252 1272 1290 1203 1262 1318 1315 1415 831 831 64423 East
/av 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.12
London 2138 2346 2417 2302 1922 1545 1367 1261 1093 976 917 914 741 816 970 986 908 792 908 888 880 731 967 829 803 827 900 894 914 942 888 916 881 933 861 1052 1046 981 990 1023 1062 985 986 1031 1043 1084 987 1101 1059 1160 1142 816 816 57737 London
/av 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.15
SE 2950 3127 3328 3271 2941 2446 2047 1988 1703 1632 1609 1538 1301 1374 1634 1469 1519 1168 1525 1518 1453 1204 1590 1465 1303 1273 1398 1445 1442 1505 1556 1497 1463 1600 1170 1642 1581 1536 1590 1642 1647 1805 1629 1748 1786 1828 1759 1704 1773 1852 1943 1260 1260 91437 SE
/av 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.11
SW 1570 1593 1670 1775 1708 1550 1306 1230 1191 1161 1115 1051 865 971 1109 1042 1084 804 1125 1042 1001 807 1089 1042 1004 950 1047 1104 1012 1166 1159 1119 1075 1104 911 1216 1268 1186 1135 1181 1215 1178 1215 1188 1302 1234 1188 1224 1226 1368 1429 925 925 62155 SW
/av 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.08
Wales 1198 1170 1077 974 903 760 787 759 689 685 621 651 483 576 644 616 582 560 640 605 610 464 636 573 563 569 639 563 638 641 634 645 598 616 542 667 668 711 653 717 719 711 701 797 725 777 776 716 747 758 828 559 559 36700 Wales
/av 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.09
Total
177511804218676184481719215354138091261411592109871031110045 8201 909810438 9941 9692 798610164 9860 9628 777810204 9459 8690 8808 9752 9697 97441013510187103721001310268 879711035110091068410510108071117711308109871155012050121031146711659119301240013013 8477 8477 594376
/av 1.46 1.31 1.41 1.45 1.41 1.29 1.19 1.09 1.04 0.96 0.92 0.95 0.81 0.88 0.95 0.93 0.80 1.06 0.97 0.97 0.95 1.02 0.92 0.95 1.06 1.05 1.07 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.10 1.12 1.07 1.20 1.18 1.15 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.13 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.11 1.13 1.12 1.15 1.13 1.07 1.10 1.10
Excess of English and Welsh deaths
5553 4221 5464 5689 4991 3434 2184 1071 413 -501 -892 -521-1920-1205 -79 -548 -764-1947 592 -328 -309 -394 230 43 -712 -484 569 448 653 1084 1155 1272 927 1110 558 1854 1703 1420 1135 1252 1367 1443 1228 1666 1722 1755 1091 1302 1237 1652 1467 522 743
Covid-19 deaths declared
6057 7245 8422 8433 7320 5691 4079 2914 2105 1501 963 719 400 379 362 260 205 129 151 107 95 98 84 102 99 109 183 218 327 404 527 571 570 668 659 857 851 888 783 666 713 792 859 995 1020 952 817 792 764 755 852 582
References:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv
See also
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/comparisonsofallcausemortalitybetweeneuropeancountriesandregions/januarytojune2020
https://www.conass.org.br/indicadores-de-obitos-por-causas-naturais/
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covidhttps://elifesciences.org/articles/69336
https://github.com/akarlinsky/world_mortality
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11.1.22