The Covid-19 toll, 2021

Elaborate tables, daily updated, purport to show the progress of the Covid-19 pandemic around the world. They have always been confusing, and by March 2020 it was already apparent that they did not give an accurate picture of the problems being faced. They depend on diagnoses; diagnosis has never been an exact science, and from the beginning it has been plain that the majority of serious cases of the disease are associated with other potentially lethal conditions. It seems that in those countries so badly affected that mortality from Covid-19 could be expected to show up in overall counts of deaths, there was generally significant underestimation of its effects, at least to begin with.

In the UK, the Office of National Statistics has for some years been providing numbers of deaths registered each week, in two tables, one divided by sex and age of the deceased, and one divided by region. It is therefore possible to compare the 2020-2021 figures with those of previous years. Below I give the 2021 figures so far available, together with the ratios of these to the averages over 2015-2019. See covid19.2020.htm for the corresponding table for 2020.

For comparison with other European countries see the last reference below.


Deaths in England and Wales in 2021, divided by week of registration, sex and age
     compared with averages over previous five years and coronavirus deaths declared for UK

Week ending
        8.1      22.1       5.2      19.2       5.3      19.3       2.4      16.4      30.4      14.5      28.5      11.6      25.6       9.7      23.7       6.8      20.8       3.9          Total to date  

Numbers of deaths in 2021, and ratios of these to average over the five years 2015-2019
     (ratios left blank if difference not significant)
Males
   <1    27   31   24   37   29   29   21   39   29   40   21   32   22   23   24   26   19   25   26   34   29   29   32   26   17   14   27   27   29   34   21   21   25   27   16   25         957     <1 
  /av                                      1.5                                          0.6                                     0.5  0.5                                          0.6             0.90
  1-14    6    8    7   10    7    7   10    5    5    8    6    6    8    7   12    3    5    7    9   10   13    7    8    8    7    9    7    9    8    8    5   12    7   12   10    5         281    1-14
  /av                            0.5            0.4                                0.2                                                                                                 0.5        0.74
 15-44  187  229  259  250  231  265  223  198  245  219  195  201  192  180  211  203  170  183  182  237  210  150  219  194  177  179  210  202  197  204  208  210  217  213  161  234        7445   15-44
  /av   1.4  1.2  1.3  1.2       1.4            1.4                           1.2                      1.2            1.2                                     1.2       1.2  1.2       1.3        1.12
 45-64 1201 1289 1350 1331 1238 1199 1108  999  943  941  900  823  660  711  867  872  777  613  832  822  780  663  804  763  723  749  747  779  767  809  837  819  753  829  662  859       31819   45-64
  /av   1.6  1.5  1.6  1.6  1.6  1.5  1.4  1.3  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.1            1.2  1.2       0.8  1.3  1.1       1.1  1.1                 1.1  1.1  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.1  1.2  1.1  1.3        1.21
 65-74 1613 1775 1741 1788 1603 1500 1346 1240 1174 1078 1052 1006  775  897 1005  954  983  817 1021  927  929  741  981  934  899  920  971  958  961  983 1000 1021  979 1026  908 1139       39645   65-74
  /av   1.5  1.4  1.5  1.6  1.5  1.4  1.2  1.2  1.1                 0.8  0.9                 0.8  1.1  0.9  0.9  0.9                                1.1       1.1  1.1       1.1  1.1  1.2        1.11
 75-84 2877 2837 2965 2786 2674 2406 2137 1937 1756 1651 1528 1498 1227 1413 1595 1489 1512 1272 1535 1554 1497 1237 1597 1475 1315 1404 1523 1490 1465 1588 1544 1559 1550 1587 1339 1748       62567   75-84
  /av   1.6  1.4  1.5  1.5  1.5  1.4  1.2  1.1  1.1       0.9  0.9  0.8  0.9       0.9       0.8  1.1                           0.9       1.1  1.1  1.1  1.2  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.3        1.12
   85+ 3011 3038 3194 3125 2865 2440 2182 2002 1787 1639 1557 1545 1246 1345 1535 1456 1543 1244 1543 1517 1447 1237 1523 1358 1314 1289 1466 1462 1515 1534 1502 1593 1601 1537 1348 1672       63212     85+
  /av   1.6  1.4  1.5  1.5  1.5  1.3  1.2  1.1       0.9  0.9       0.8  0.8  0.9  0.9       0.8                                0.9       1.1  1.1  1.1  1.2  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.1  1.1  1.2        1.11

Females
   <1    25   21   24   22   11   28   15   25   23   24   26   24   16   21   18   24   16   17   29   18   19   19   32   21   22   17   23   20   22   18   22   24   18   11   19   17         751     <1 
  /av                       0.5       0.6                                                         1.6                                                                        0.5          
  1-14    6    1   10    9   10    8   10   10    6    9   13   11    4    4    2    3    6    8    3    8    6    4   10    9    5    2   10    4    7    7    5    7    4    8    4   12         245    1-14
  /av        0.1                                                              0.2  0.4            0.3                                0.3                                                          0.83
 15-44  116  158  157  150  145  147  124  113  111  115  110  119   96  112  125  128  120   78   98  109  133   74  103  116   96  113  111  113  116  110  111  121  103  104  101  107        4163   15-44
  /av   1.3  1.5  1.5  1.5  1.3  1.3                           1.2                           0.8                           1.2                                     1.4                            1.14
 45-64  777  812  852  812  777  727  725  634  598  585  554  522  446  482  529  516  491  404  491  531  491  392  512  541  430  467  520  540  502  518  558  529  515  511  480  568       20339   45-64
  /av   1.4  1.4  1.5  1.5  1.4  1.4  1.3  1.2  1.2  1.1                                     0.9                           1.1            1.1  1.2  1.1  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.2        1.15
 65-74 1232 1169 1226 1146 1087  974  966  913  819  751  736  680  590  617  766  721  673  553  698  668  671  535  712  681  639  588  701  701  677  706  734  761  707  764  613  780       27955   65-74
  /av   1.5  1.3  1.4  1.4  1.4  1.2  1.3  1.2                      0.8  0.9                 0.8                 0.9                 0.9                 1.1  1.1  1.2  1.1  1.2       1.2        1.09
 75-84 2392 2447 2359 2484 2233 1980 1814 1573 1486 1448 1359 1274 1079 1194 1396 1292 1255 1022 1344 1284 1249  986 1343 1230 1203 1163 1308 1239 1273 1349 1347 1369 1345 1348 1187 1478       53132   75-84
  /av   1.4  1.3  1.3  1.5  1.4  1.3  1.2                 0.9  0.9  0.8  0.9       0.9  0.9  0.8  1.1            0.9                      1.1       1.1  1.1  1.1  1.2  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.2        1.08
   85+ 4281 4227 4508 4498 4282 3644 3128 2926 2610 2479 2254 2304 1840 2092 2353 2254 2122 1743 2353 2141 2154 1704 2328 2103 1843 1894 2128 2153 2205 2267 2293 2326 2189 2291 1949 2391       92257     85+
  /av   1.3  1.1  1.3  1.3  1.3  1.2  1.1       0.9  0.8  0.8  0.9  0.7  0.8  0.9  0.9  0.8  0.7       0.9  0.9  0.9            0.8  0.9            1.0  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.0  1.1       1.1        1.01

Regions (North East, North West, Yorkshire & Humberside, East Midlands, West Midlands, East, London, South East, South West, Wales)
NE      858  797  836  752  742  763  677  614  581  593  523  505  449  504  544  509  501  455  548  503  548  435  534  492  462  514  487  515  565  544  580  560  540  591  476  578       20675  NE    
  /av   1.3  1.1  1.2  1.1  1.1  1.2  1.1                           0.9                 0.9  0.9            1.1                                     1.1  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.1  1.2       1.2        1.06
NW     2090 2112 2202 2191 2162 2002 1920 1659 1564 1472 1457 1365 1125 1229 1351 1345 1281 1089 1282 1386 1431 1113 1355 1263 1200 1296 1326 1303 1309 1350 1358 1406 1424 1386 1269 1605       53678  NW    
  /av   1.2  1.2  1.3  1.3  1.4  1.3  1.2  1.1                      0.9  0.9  0.9       0.9  0.8            1.1  0.9            0.9  1.1       1.1       1.1  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.1  1.2  1.3        1.08
Y & H  1640 1408 1426 1485 1326 1274 1261 1196 1100 1037 1031 1016  848  930 1004 1001  943  775 1060 1006  903  784 1025  975  839  849  922  999  942  987  965 1099 1038 1064  928 1072       38158  Y & H 
  /av   1.3       1.1  1.2  1.1  1.1  1.1            0.9            0.9  0.9                 0.8  1.1            0.9            0.9  0.9       1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.1        1.05
E Mid  1414 1402 1496 1403 1406 1456 1244 1092 1091  999  891  929  655  850  944  849  814  700  921  850  830  641  874  893  726  728  821  777  901  869  866  950  958  900  789  923       34852  E Mid 
  /av   1.3  1.2  1.4  1.3  1.4  1.4  1.3  1.1  1.2                 0.8                      0.8                 0.9       1.1  0.9  0.9            1.2  1.2  1.1  1.2  1.3  1.2  1.2  1.1        1.11
W Mid  1785 1820 1925 1926 1886 1670 1592 1401 1250 1182 1101 1075  881  888 1073 1057  982  788 1112 1038  968  804 1022  928  869  891 1099 1056 1039 1058 1103 1067 1027 1008  906 1152       42429  W Mid 
  /av   1.3  1.3  1.4  1.5  1.5  1.3  1.3  1.2                      0.9  0.8                 0.8  1.1            0.9            0.9  0.9  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.1  1.1       1.2  1.2        1.11
East   2082 2240 2267 2350 2166 1866 1581 1403 1309 1225 1029  988  841  950 1153 1054 1062  841 1031 1013  992  783 1098  987  909  899 1092 1027  968 1060 1062 1091  995 1044  924 1112       44494  East  
  /av   1.5  1.5  1.6  1.7  1.6  1.4  1.3  1.1  1.1       0.9  0.9  0.8  0.8            0.9  0.8       0.9       0.9            0.9  0.9  1.1            1.1  1.1  1.1            1.1  1.1        1.11
London 2138 2346 2417 2302 1922 1545 1367 1261 1093  976  917  914  741  816  970  986  908  792  908  888  880  731  967  829  803  827  900  894  914  942  888  916  881  933  861 1052       40425  London
  /av   1.8  1.9  2.1  2.0  1.7  1.4  1.3  1.2       0.9  0.9  0.9  0.8  0.8            0.9  0.9                 0.9  1.1       0.9       1.1            1.1                 1.1  1.1  1.2        1.17
SE     2950 3127 3328 3271 2941 2446 2047 1988 1703 1632 1609 1538 1301 1374 1634 1469 1519 1168 1525 1518 1453 1204 1590 1465 1303 1273 1398 1445 1442 1505 1556 1497 1463 1600 1170 1642       63094  SE    
  /av   1.5  1.5  1.6  1.7  1.6  1.3  1.2  1.1       0.9       0.9  0.9  0.9       0.9       0.8                 0.9  1.1       0.9  0.9                 1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1       1.1        1.11
SW     1570 1593 1670 1775 1708 1550 1306 1230 1191 1161 1115 1051  865  971 1109 1042 1084  804 1125 1042 1001  807 1089 1042 1004  950 1047 1104 1012 1166 1159 1119 1075 1104  911 1216       41768  SW    
  /av   1.1  1.1  1.2  1.4  1.3  1.2  1.1            0.9  0.9  0.9  0.8  0.9                 0.8  1.1            0.9                           1.1       1.2  1.2  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.2        1.05
Wales  1198 1170 1077  974  903  760  787  759  689  685  621  651  483  576  644  616  582  560  640  605  610  464  636  573  563  569  639  563  638  641  634  645  598  616  542  667       24578  Wales 
  /av   1.5  1.4  1.4  1.2  1.2       1.1                 0.8       0.7  0.8            0.9  0.9                 0.8                      1.1       1.2  1.1  1.1  1.1                 1.2        1.06

Total
      177511804218676184481719215354138091261411592109871031110045 8201 909810438 9941 9692 798610164 9860 9628 777810204 9459 8690 8808 9752 9697 97441013510187103721001310268 879711035      404768        
  /av  1.46 1.31 1.41 1.45 1.41 1.29 1.19 1.09 1.04 0.96 0.92 0.95 0.81 0.88      0.95 0.93 0.80 1.06 0.97 0.97 0.95 1.02      0.92 0.95 1.06 1.05 1.07 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.10 1.12 1.07 1.20        1.09

Excess of English and Welsh deaths
       5553 4221 5464 5689 4991 3434 2184 1071  413 -501 -892 -521-1920-1205  -79 -548 -764-1947  592 -328 -309 -394  230   43 -712 -484  569  448  653 1084 1155 1272  927 1110  558 1854
Covid-19 deaths declared
       6057 7245 8422 8433 7320 5691 4079 2914 2105 1501  963  719  400  379  362  260  205  129  151  107   95   98   84  102   99  109  183  218  327  404  527  571  570  668  659  857

References:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv
See also
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/comparisonsofallcausemortalitybetweeneuropeancountriesandregions/januarytojune2020
https://www.conass.org.br/indicadores-de-obitos-por-causas-naturais/
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

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21.9.21