Elaborate tables, daily updated, purport to
show the progress of the
Covid-19 pandemic around the world. They have
always been confusing, and
by March 2020 it was already apparent that they
did not give an accurate
picture of the problems being faced. They depend
on diagnoses; diagnosis
has never been an exact science, and from the
beginning it has been plain
that the majority of serious cases of the disease
are associated with
other potentially lethal conditions. It seems
that in those countries so
badly affected that mortality from Covid-19 could
be expected to show up in
overall counts of deaths, there was generally
significant underestimation
of its effects, at least to begin with.
In the UK, the Office of National
Statistics has for some years been providing
numbers of deaths registered each week, in two
tables, one divided by sex and
age of the deceased, and one divided by region.
It is therefore possible to
compare the 2020 figures with those of previous years.
Below I give the
2020 figures so far available, together with the ratios
of these to the
averages over 2015-2019. At the bottom I give the
overall "excess deaths",
the differences between the totals recorded in each
week and the corresponding
averages of previous years, and the "Covid reported
deaths" for the same weeks
(for the UK as a whole) as published by the CSSE at
Johns Hopkins University.
As the final week, ending 1.1.21, is week 53
of 2020, and the comparison years 2016-2019 had
only 52 weeks each, I have taken the deaths in week 52 of
those years for the averages compared with week 53 in
2020.
For comparison with other European countries see the last reference below.
Deaths in England and Wales in 2020, divided by week of registration, sex and age
compared with averages over previous five years and coronavirus deaths declared for UK
Week ending
3.1 17.1 31.1 14.2 28.2 13.3 27.3 10.4 24.4 8.5 22.5 5.6 19.6 3.7 17.7 31.7 14.8 28.8 11.9 25.9 9.10 23.10 6.11 20.11 4.12 18.12 Total to date
Numbers of deaths in 2020, and ratios of these to average over previous five years
(ratios left blank if difference not significant)
Males
<1 30 29 38 28 22 14 29 32 30 31 24 25 27 26 28 24 33 30 16 34 26 22 20 27 29 26 26 31 18 31 27 22 26 36 23 19 19 14 22 27 28 20 22 17 27 21 34 26 30 21 25 20 16 1348 <1
/av 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.88
1-14 8 15 11 14 11 11 8 11 15 10 8 8 5 7 7 7 9 5 13 11 12 8 11 7 10 6 9 5 6 6 12 6 12 6 8 7 9 8 6 12 12 11 8 8 6 10 14 9 9 12 8 9 9 485 1-14
/av 0.4 0.88
15-44 115 176 207 214 195 174 184 202 203 203 198 185 186 183 201 217 251 213 147 180 222 156 171 174 176 145 166 173 177 170 181 209 176 199 184 147 200 211 206 175 194 191 204 216 206 199 197 227 219 190 203 173 108 9979 15-44
/av 1.2 1.3 0.8 1.2 0.8 1.2 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.03
45-64 665 884 939 820 858 784 767 725 717 744 819 767 764 1157 1315 1401 1434 1183 847 987 906 662 790 772 702 707 725 687 712 763 761 711 667 745 775 588 768 725 764 738 731 789 812 827 843 900 939 950 938 970 926 802 641 44313 45-64
/av 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.17
65-74 1112 1270 1161 1145 1120 1049 1060 998 1064 1034 1049 1033 1089 1701 1804 2071 2015 1571 1129 1290 1124 894 1032 977 944 887 932 875 893 873 927 889 945 898 919 804 992 949 980 1024 951 974 1046 1095 1156 1235 1236 1230 1180 1206 1229 1090 945 59096 65-74
/av 1.1 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.14
75-84 1879 2096 1966 1770 1746 1588 1596 1672 1580 1663 1652 1655 1793 2873 3246 3735 3621 2760 1979 2293 1822 1541 1663 1522 1503 1367 1465 1370 1356 1347 1344 1353 1495 1530 1342 1194 1468 1507 1500 1595 1600 1609 1656 1660 1915 2051 2096 1966 1929 1981 2015 1854 1590 96369 75-84
/av 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.19
85+ 2080 2358 2108 1924 1842 1786 1847 1799 1826 1773 1820 1725 1867 2847 3347 3990 3865 3095 2078 2448 1985 1551 1656 1506 1406 1362 1315 1269 1203 1299 1318 1329 1436 1405 1325 1166 1562 1423 1439 1510 1589 1674 1662 1740 1868 1923 2009 2042 2008 1939 2264 1988 1816 99412 85+
/av 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.8 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.20
Females
<1 18 21 31 25 28 16 14 19 19 25 29 19 22 25 10 27 21 18 12 22 25 18 24 17 19 21 21 27 17 18 18 22 24 13 15 10 20 22 23 20 17 21 12 14 16 24 20 18 20 24 21 13 16 1051 <1
/av 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.88
1-14 8 11 5 7 4 5 4 7 5 10 14 4 8 14 7 8 3 6 7 8 4 6 5 4 9 5 4 5 4 6 7 9 3 10 10 3 5 7 11 4 5 2 6 5 6 8 7 8 6 8 6 9 12 354 1-14
/av 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 2.4 0.81
15-44 74 99 107 100 113 97 102 119 112 109 113 90 97 105 131 136 153 132 86 107 117 76 96 113 87 74 106 91 100 105 107 120 113 96 87 95 103 106 108 104 98 105 123 107 120 120 127 123 120 120 115 108 72 5644 15-44
/av 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.3 0.7 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.06
45-64 536 616 579 536 490 545 521 546 540 508 521 497 537 703 796 893 849 714 523 656 575 461 518 498 504 443 456 421 486 445 448 468 483 506 461 433 441 506 489 519 500 542 518 528 541 590 561 603 591 555 598 513 445 28752 45-64
/av 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.12
65-74 748 928 852 813 808 760 694 745 729 735 704 747 716 1033 1142 1309 1223 1030 806 898 759 673 759 742 671 681 669 668 653 644 651 592 656 672 655 573 733 661 642 681 713 748 790 750 815 781 787 769 848 789 822 793 664 40924 65-74
/av 0.9 0.9 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.10
75-84 1705 1918 1749 1567 1510 1468 1413 1362 1388 1460 1452 1412 1454 2132 2367 2922 2892 2382 1648 1874 1633 1339 1479 1344 1177 1240 1165 1159 1191 1159 1215 1197 1219 1293 1254 1039 1321 1237 1275 1327 1234 1413 1466 1502 1587 1601 1689 1595 1574 1627 1723 1474 1323 81146 75-84
/av 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.13
85+ 3275 3636 3237 2890 2865 2687 2709 2603 2587 2587 2614 2479 2577 3581 4115 5611 5628 4814 3366 3765 3078 2417 2485 2273 2102 2015 2081 1909 2007 2025 1930 2018 2137 2222 1974 1661 2170 2146 2169 2209 2282 2435 2414 2418 2706 2791 2819 2890 2831 2850 3056 2674 2419 145239 85+
/av 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.6 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.10
Regions (North East, North West, Yorkshire & Humberside, East Midlands, West Midlands, East, London, South East, South West, Wales)
NE 673 707 647 612 561 564 573 539 572 568 590 522 542 770 849 1155 1103 922 769 845 718 550 576 478 498 485 515 468 445 493 507 486 520 479 455 431 502 465 514 558 544 606 600 591 675 711 691 679 645 661 689 669 547 32534 NE
/av 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.5 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.15
NW 1806 1932 1696 1529 1461 1529 1427 1477 1476 1490 1472 1443 1538 2137 2597 3195 3109 2503 1790 1992 1636 1337 1478 1374 1234 1300 1225 1154 1159 1197 1272 1211 1304 1269 1148 1057 1229 1287 1271 1301 1367 1553 1714 1754 1900 1950 1935 1791 1679 1691 1718 1463 1346 84903 NW
/av 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.3 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.17
Y & H 1240 1339 1278 1187 1136 1072 1059 1087 1078 1112 1053 1012 982 1436 1503 1960 2095 1844 1328 1589 1236 1046 1090 980 952 922 875 848 843 817 837 851 853 870 922 780 952 939 965 978 1067 1001 1111 1168 1294 1350 1441 1501 1403 1326 1380 1130 886 61004 Y & H
/av 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.4 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.3 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.15
E Mid 1060 1195 1106 1024 1015 922 976 924 919 930 915 947 922 1246 1452 1632 1711 1418 1094 1283 1041 863 931 967 835 800 827 771 816 798 729 798 829 780 724 640 867 795 825 842 884 904 891 882 990 1099 1105 1218 1121 1199 1199 1097 842 52600 E Mid
/av 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.15
W Mid 1349 1450 1407 1231 1262 1052 1159 1116 1174 1098 1187 1115 1035 1812 2182 2536 2481 1975 1326 1502 1319 970 1172 1096 973 946 949 902 956 964 902 933 923 1028 945 770 1021 1051 1036 1045 1053 1154 1124 1102 1186 1317 1385 1358 1340 1432 1385 1217 1024 65427 W Mid
/av 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.4 2.0 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.18
East 1162 1573 1457 1410 1286 1259 1172 1167 1115 1149 1211 1043 1182 1717 1984 2466 2299 1982 1321 1543 1397 1095 1131 1048 927 880 922 999 945 951 949 955 1006 1024 951 806 1052 1023 963 1054 1019 1056 1154 1089 1177 1172 1186 1159 1229 1224 1317 1198 997 64553 East
/av 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.12
London 1113 1272 1073 1028 1092 987 967 1032 1085 982 964 1008 1297 2511 2832 3275 2785 1953 1213 1329 1125 841 891 883 896 791 837 803 806 816 773 832 928 920 810 737 898 844 869 899 902 923 922 888 952 1112 1086 1012 1029 1065 1167 1090 1159 60304 London
/av 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.4 2.5 2.9 3.4 2.9 2.2 1.3 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.20
SE 1814 2132 2064 1833 1820 1729 1688 1675 1587 1726 1751 1657 1822 2294 2604 3084 3334 2853 1887 2251 1937 1515 1610 1530 1411 1311 1454 1228 1339 1340 1447 1370 1395 1608 1511 1208 1610 1530 1521 1577 1462 1462 1510 1563 1614 1616 1687 1655 1720 1706 1947 1701 1595 92295 SE
/av 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.12
SW 1225 1487 1466 1253 1233 1157 1169 1118 1133 1170 1174 1156 1092 1520 1560 1854 1924 1554 1218 1449 1177 1011 1116 1035 990 979 938 930 953 941 988 929 1009 1043 959 803 1084 1021 1041 1003 1010 1174 1044 1129 1174 1168 1159 1272 1284 1156 1311 1115 929 61787 SW
/av 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.07
Wales 787 939 767 723 727 690 728 679 651 652 675 719 719 920 928 1169 1124 929 692 772 692 587 700 574 617 552 584 572 550 565 531 563 617 594 591 488 578 555 617 671 638 688 661 712 832 742 848 797 836 814 882 825 727 37790 Wales
/av 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.12
Total
122531405712990118531161210984109481084010815108921101710646111421638718516223512199717953126571457312288 982410709 9976 9339 8979 9140 8690 8823 8891 8946 8945 9392 9631 9032 7739 9811 9522 9634 9945 9954105341073910887118121225412535124561230312292130111152010076 614112
/av 0.93 0.95 0.92 0.94 0.94 0.97 0.95 1.10 1.59 1.76 2.13 2.10 1.81 1.32 1.43 1.24 1.20 1.07 1.06 0.97 0.94 0.97 1.03 1.05 1.10 0.84 1.05 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.07 1.10 1.10 1.14 1.18 1.21 1.20 1.15 1.14 1.13 1.45 1.30 1.14
Excess of English and Welsh deaths in 2020
55 236 -222 -906 -589 -936 -677 -703 -364 -596 -186 80 1021 6084 79991186211541 8020 3085 4385 2351 1652 735 560 -63 -313 -43 -559 -268 -160 -86 -155 306 473 793-1442 505 258 259 390 144 669 980 1003 1484 1906 2159 2099 1610 1544 1465 3565 2342
UK Covid-19 deaths declared
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 9 184 978 3346 6295 6129 5870 4569 3519 2442 2016 1873 1191 810 544 473 332 238 156 113 101 81 88 47 81 51 77 118 204 332 411 750 1142 1658 2246 2829 2982 3265 3066 2889 3035 3654 3930
L
References:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv
See also
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/comparisonsofallcausemortalitybetweeneuropeancountriesandregions/januarytojune2020
https://www.conass.org.br/indicadores-de-obitos-por-causas-naturais/
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