Elaborate tables, daily updated, purport to
show the progress of the
Covid-19 pandemic around the world. They have
always been confusing, and
by March 2020 it was already apparent that they
did not give an accurate
picture of the problems being faced. They depend
on diagnoses; diagnosis
has never been an exact science, and from the
beginning it has been plain
that the majority of serious cases of the disease
are associated with
other potentially lethal conditions. It seems
that in those countries so
badly affected that mortality from Covid-19 could
be expected to show up in
overall counts of deaths, there was generally
significant underestimation
of its effects, at least to begin with.
In the UK, the Office of National
Statistics has for some years been providing
numbers of deaths registered each week, in two
tables, one divided by sex and
age of the deceased, and one divided by region.
It is therefore possible to
compare the 2020-2023 figures with those of previous
years. Below I give the
2023 figures so far available, together with the ratios
of these to the averages over 2015-2019. See
covid19.2020.htm,
covid19.2021.htm and
covid19.2022.htm
for the corresponding tables for 2020, 2021 and 2022.
For comparison with other countries see the last reference below.
Deaths in England and Wales in 2023, divided by week of registration, sex and age
compared with averages in 2015-2019 and coronavirus deaths declared for UK
Week ending
6.1 20.1 3.2 17.2 3.3 17.3 31.3 14.4 28.4 12.5 26.5 9.6 23.6 7.7 21.7 4.8 18.8 1.9 15.9 29.9 13.10 27.10 10.11 24.11 Total to date
Numbers of deaths in 2023, and ratios of these to average over the five years 2015-2019
(ratios left blank if difference not significant)
Males
<1 27 32 29 38 31 22 31 36 26 24 30 21 23 29 22 31 35 22 22 38 35 26 29 33 22 22 22 26 27 36 22 21 19 31 25 29 29 31 27 31 28 34 36 21 36 32 25 30 1354 <1
/av 0.7 0.6
1-14 6 14 13 8 11 18 11 15 7 13 13 9 14 10 15 6 11 10 11 12 9 8 6 9 8 16 13 14 9 9 12 13 7 14 4 9 13 8 13 11 10 16 17 15 7 11 14 10 532 1-14
/av 0.5 0.5
15-44 161 217 256 222 218 236 227 243 244 213 244 214 203 180 183 198 244 183 205 222 234 170 213 194 237 211 201 233 181 233 201 218 206 217 189 190 206 210 198 192 247 196 195 193 215 226 213 212 10144 15-44
/av 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.14
45-64 879 1028 1041 1014 946 913 837 828 887 791 857 864 849 699 751 890 943 776 789 859 893 671 850 827 847 793 745 791 788 736 800 796 761 737 656 770 757 834 750 754 838 813 783 787 863 799 798 870 39548 45-64
/av 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.14
65-74 1169 1562 1352 1294 1144 1146 1144 1065 1065 1005 1123 1062 1041 926 922 1095 1124 890 981 1128 1045 821 1028 1018 983 988 901 996 898 961 907 972 948 955 823 925 972 992 922 908 927 967 907 1017 1015 985 1073 966 49058 65-74
/av 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.04
75-84 2255 2645 2472 2192 2154 1951 1839 1899 1948 1755 1939 1947 1804 1628 1570 2058 1886 1596 1641 1893 1859 1408 1773 1721 1647 1726 1607 1541 1553 1550 1587 1564 1625 1626 1312 1709 1619 1660 1540 1591 1689 1619 1686 1769 1837 1795 1735 1830 85250 75-84
/av 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.16
85+ 2588 2953 2621 2345 2184 2084 1956 1937 1976 1901 2020 1991 1888 1737 1641 2061 1923 1610 1671 1845 1762 1422 1740 1741 1689 1584 1497 1564 1509 1574 1589 1587 1605 1574 1336 1631 1704 1622 1617 1634 1764 1727 1733 1789 1904 1878 1871 1837 87416 85+
/av 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.16
Females
<1 17 23 21 18 28 23 29 19 25 17 17 20 22 16 20 27 17 22 12 24 15 20 21 23 28 21 16 20 15 21 24 24 24 16 13 21 19 24 26 22 22 21 13 22 18 23 23 14 986 <1
/av 0.6 0.5 0.90
1-14 8 10 8 10 11 4 6 8 8 12 10 15 9 8 5 10 8 8 3 11 6 9 10 11 7 7 6 10 7 7 6 4 11 13 8 4 9 16 12 6 7 12 14 4 6 8 7 13 412 1-14
/av 0.4 1.8 0.3 2.4
15-44 121 148 148 131 138 104 105 133 96 145 116 136 125 112 93 123 131 117 112 116 133 107 125 104 104 114 137 126 117 97 126 127 93 101 86 85 91 130 122 115 111 107 110 106 139 110 116 105 5594 15-44
/av 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.15
45-64 639 770 682 637 593 557 526 577 545 543 584 548 519 457 453 588 608 480 475 543 550 443 504 520 559 529 526 540 480 514 575 544 525 484 444 498 543 534 497 507 500 504 529 525 564 534 516 556 25868 45-64
/av 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.10
65-74 956 1047 1011 882 865 827 765 778 780 763 779 791 765 648 690 783 796 618 648 741 728 598 687 734 672 706 656 641 659 644 673 649 708 673 567 657 650 697 643 673 729 687 648 643 678 691 742 691 34757 65-74
/av 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.03
75-84 2180 2449 2143 1923 1838 1717 1716 1625 1613 1515 1623 1574 1579 1410 1364 1688 1642 1431 1416 1566 1437 1268 1510 1427 1422 1411 1335 1400 1295 1259 1368 1312 1347 1389 1114 1378 1434 1341 1354 1380 1368 1400 1402 1491 1528 1579 1518 1577 73056 75-84
/av 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.12
85+ 3977 4483 4007 3423 3251 3070 2839 2789 2829 2713 2778 2860 2743 2229 2249 2862 2784 2380 2381 2656 2405 1868 2444 2338 2247 2245 2074 2128 2121 2043 2148 2160 2184 2256 1864 2262 2309 2285 2258 2279 2304 2285 2372 2601 2679 2572 2734 2617 123385 85+
/av 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.03
Regions (North East, North West, Yorkshire & Humberside, East Midlands, West Midlands, East, London, South East, South West, Wales)
NE 788 947 837 727 664 654 645 614 617 585 607 571 602 564 573 698 656 538 533 570 549 475 592 551 532 581 526 534 492 522 572 518 540 527 467 569 562 521 535 509 562 558 549 561 584 642 665 629 28414 NE
/av 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.10
NW 2177 2330 2224 1937 1789 1644 1633 1566 1608 1621 1655 1635 1570 1367 1402 1627 1647 1339 1411 1548 1503 1153 1378 1463 1358 1385 1306 1291 1297 1348 1405 1358 1320 1360 1201 1354 1449 1297 1400 1353 1452 1459 1470 1521 1564 1473 1539 1499 72686 NW
/av 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.10
Y & H 1555 1771 1557 1348 1223 1250 1084 1155 1136 1059 1179 1164 1152 1052 950 1229 1161 1015 1031 1196 1070 828 1090 1061 991 1028 924 1018 998 928 989 991 959 1060 782 995 1080 1061 945 972 1016 1047 1055 1091 1135 1111 1145 1098 52735 Y & H
/av 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.10
E Mid 1346 1399 1368 1223 1229 1048 1062 1034 1044 969 1128 1059 1045 841 880 1057 1101 903 859 998 962 762 946 914 949 888 767 852 815 832 865 901 903 828 800 895 874 843 819 877 881 912 925 1006 1000 1006 1021 1039 46675 E Mid
/av 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.12
W Mid 1529 1811 1719 1554 1472 1413 1251 1180 1248 1123 1291 1217 1270 995 1008 1311 1323 1038 1097 1227 1115 889 1147 1070 1051 1094 1018 1107 1030 975 1026 1061 1027 1021 870 1028 1022 1062 1016 1040 1137 1043 1086 1092 1246 1217 1187 1183 55937 W Mid
/av 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.11
East 1564 1839 1690 1519 1500 1379 1312 1330 1329 1246 1328 1329 1248 1136 1106 1318 1313 1056 1163 1261 1125 1002 1210 1168 1187 1083 1083 1021 1043 1001 1046 1075 1055 1055 863 1053 1091 1090 1017 1049 1143 1044 1069 1212 1278 1167 1159 1211 57566 East
/av 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.09
London 1324 1491 1324 1184 1158 1094 1128 1098 1084 1065 1057 1143 1013 899 827 1028 1085 909 928 1021 952 818 999 961 1011 969 910 896 828 865 912 881 917 927 742 920 935 984 917 889 928 944 912 969 993 1021 1062 988 47910 London
/av 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.05
SE 2120 2696 2394 2237 2129 2014 1877 1841 1893 1843 1755 1834 1721 1563 1548 1862 1788 1559 1529 1844 1845 1437 1751 1638 1587 1600 1498 1581 1471 1497 1488 1521 1533 1494 1285 1565 1556 1652 1626 1614 1614 1598 1586 1656 1702 1645 1751 1725 82563 SE
/av 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.10
SW 1573 1874 1685 1561 1416 1399 1289 1404 1327 1224 1315 1304 1235 1038 1082 1444 1323 1126 1178 1267 1281 889 1164 1195 1141 1038 1047 1053 1037 1049 1062 1101 1119 1092 860 1167 1104 1157 1036 1129 1085 1181 1147 1212 1238 1239 1177 1205 58269 SW
/av 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.11
Wales 979 1183 974 816 807 755 720 707 740 654 795 778 708 616 578 821 732 647 610 697 673 557 640 652 632 685 632 653 623 639 633 561 660 686 544 594 658 683 632 646 695 578 622 642 729 700 646 729 33341 Wales
/av 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.09
Total
1498317381158041413713412126721203111952120491141012133120521158410089 9978124201215210143103671165411111 883910940107001047210373 973610030 9659 968410038 99911006310086 8441101681035510384 9979101031054410388104451098311489112431138511328 537360
/av 1.23 1.26 1.20 1.11 1.10 1.06 1.03 1.04 1.08 1.08 1.14 1.14 0.98 0.95 1.18 1.16 1.02 1.08 1.14 1.12 1.08 1.10 1.14 1.11 1.12 1.06 1.08 1.06 1.07 1.11 1.10 1.11 1.10 1.02 1.11 1.11 1.12 1.06 1.06 1.07 1.05 1.07 1.11 1.11 1.09 1.10 1.09 1.10
Excess of English and Welsh deaths
2785 3560 2592 1378 1211 752 406 409 870 -78 930 1486 1463 -214 -539 1931 1696 210 795 1466 1174 667 966 1284 1070 1081 553 781 568 633 1006 891 977 928 202 987 1049 1120 604 548 734 523 686 1099 1161 895 1009 971
Covid-19-associated deaths declared
739 922 781 579 499 446 416 420 513 533 559 624 634 513 465 538 459 310 309 322 262 189 211 156 154 129 95 77 70 63 68 108 125 203 155 218 248 262 231 255 352 304 314 332 311 259 174 177
References:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv
See also
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/comparisonsofallcausemortalitybetweeneuropeancountriesandregions/januarytojune2020
https://www.conass.org.br/indicadores-de-obitos-por-causas-naturais/
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covidhttps://elifesciences.org/articles/69336
https://github.com/akarlinsky/world_mortality
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14.12.23