Elaborate tables, daily updated, purport to
show the progress of the
Covid-19 pandemic around the world. They have
always been confusing, and
by March 2020 it was already apparent that they
did not give an accurate
picture of the problems being faced. They depend
on diagnoses; diagnosis
has never been an exact science, and from the
beginning it has been plain
that the majority of serious cases of the disease
are associated with
other potentially lethal conditions. It seems
that in those countries so
badly affected that mortality from Covid-19 could
be expected to show up in
overall counts of deaths, there was generally
significant underestimation
of its effects, at least to begin with.
In the UK, the Office of National
Statistics has for some years been providing
numbers of deaths registered each week, in two
tables, one divided by sex and
age of the deceased, and one divided by region.
It is therefore possible to
compare the 2020-2021 figures with those of previous
years. Below I give the
2021 figures so far available, together with the ratios
of these to the averages over 2015-2019. See
covid19.2020.htm
covid19.2021.htm
for the corresponding tables for 2020 and 2021.
For comparison with other countries see the last reference below.
Deaths in England and Wales in 2022, divided by week of registration, sex and age
compared with averages in 2015-2019 and coronavirus deaths declared for UK
Week ending
7.1 21.1 4.2 18.2 4.3 18.3 1.4 15.4 29.4 13.5 27.5 10.6 24.6 8.7 22.7 5.8 19.8 2.9 16.9 30.9 14.10 28.10 11.11 25.11 9.12 23.12 Total to date
Numbers of deaths in 2021, and ratios of these to average over the five years 2015-2019
(ratios left blank if difference not significant)
Males
<1 30 30 28 28 26 25 26 26 32 23 25 25 21 26 19 22 23 26 28 32 34 19 31 33 29 30 27 29 29 28 22 31 25 29 16 30 29 24 27 29 28 36 29 26 24 27 32 25 16 26 24 18 1383 <1
/av 0.6 0.5 0.91
1-14 7 5 9 10 13 13 15 11 10 12 10 7 10 14 8 12 14 10 5 9 12 5 6 16 8 10 11 6 9 9 8 5 13 11 9 13 18 8 15 6 16 11 13 10 11 9 12 14 17 13 17 8 553 1-14
/av 0.4 0.5 0.5 2.6 1.9
15-44 170 217 217 203 191 179 228 197 205 217 220 201 197 192 173 178 201 140 191 181 189 107 214 218 210 213 201 209 199 198 199 210 225 215 173 189 209 152 216 193 210 208 186 219 207 225 224 207 220 242 217 97 10299 15-44
/av 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.07
45-64 852 983 929 915 977 826 852 809 839 851 810 808 724 741 664 726 815 731 846 860 829 529 842 816 829 758 812 796 808 784 771 738 843 764 675 861 818 651 804 787 785 836 790 843 876 824 840 832 812 857 953 528 41849 45-64
/av 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.12
65-74 1132 1229 1295 1154 1113 1116 1048 1057 1071 1053 1065 962 898 1003 935 979 1123 905 1136 1122 1004 678 1073 1027 1079 987 968 950 1068 1005 1033 1013 1032 1052 836 1015 988 830 977 1012 1122 1045 1024 1054 1099 1062 1030 1029 1033 1105 1236 780 53642 65-74
/av 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.05
75-84 1880 2100 1970 1965 1839 1825 1753 1695 1717 1681 1706 1759 1493 1673 1603 1630 2028 1599 1991 1822 1694 1097 1831 1757 1650 1570 1634 1628 1738 1646 1710 1687 1673 1719 1359 1721 1675 1330 1776 1827 1850 1903 1776 1856 1764 1804 1841 1659 1803 1923 2173 1472 90275 75-84
/av 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.13
85+ 1974 2252 2099 2039 1951 1860 1794 1875 1810 1810 1823 1807 1577 1800 1667 1777 2054 1665 1933 1793 1815 1050 1869 1732 1701 1650 1616 1682 1811 1805 1655 1635 1771 1704 1437 1723 1728 1480 1715 1784 1963 2020 1845 1959 1906 1830 1796 1859 1877 2014 2506 1615 93913 85+
/av 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.15
Females
<1 19 19 14 16 15 25 25 17 20 25 22 20 14 13 8 17 20 13 19 20 21 22 16 20 17 24 18 17 25 22 17 17 23 23 14 27 18 19 14 27 15 25 20 21 26 22 25 25 25 25 29 11 1031 <1
/av 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.88
1-14 7 13 6 12 3 16 5 4 5 16 12 11 10 4 8 4 5 4 14 5 8 12 5 15 14 7 9 7 8 17 6 3 9 11 4 6 8 5 4 4 10 10 3 6 10 9 7 9 6 14 14 5 429 1-14
/av 0.4 1.9 1.9 3.3 0.4 0.3
15-44 114 113 144 117 105 127 135 113 109 107 97 108 111 100 93 88 131 90 120 123 117 76 131 118 138 118 101 122 102 98 110 105 96 100 92 120 119 101 121 127 128 135 113 114 122 129 135 110 125 139 119 64 5890 15-44
/av 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.12
45-64 597 616 591 590 588 539 512 525 534 526 457 510 492 523 495 464 575 455 547 564 528 373 634 531 527 502 501 534 525 510 566 501 559 579 418 540 565 461 564 524 566 564 551 552 543 546 589 517 605 585 706 403 27869 45-64
/av 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.10
65-74 837 880 865 748 797 736 759 710 704 741 754 682 648 689 638 732 806 639 793 777 721 466 811 710 742 757 728 683 715 734 702 665 698 731 606 742 754 583 715 744 779 749 754 762 753 833 773 795 719 795 944 628 38226 65-74
/av 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.04
75-84 1682 1778 1698 1656 1537 1556 1497 1501 1574 1569 1442 1443 1344 1425 1315 1505 1646 1399 1592 1546 1479 920 1570 1512 1466 1434 1392 1450 1453 1492 1389 1396 1484 1482 1213 1375 1434 1147 1471 1478 1563 1638 1526 1592 1538 1568 1509 1556 1666 1722 2018 1408 78046 75-84
/av 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.11
85+ 2961 3076 2911 2948 2707 2715 2622 2610 2595 2596 2484 2402 2301 2484 2293 2546 3000 2265 2833 2666 2409 1471 2709 2339 2426 2297 2214 2402 2488 2665 2510 2349 2531 2522 2016 2391 2310 1960 2541 2665 2664 2758 2615 2781 2659 2691 2670 2670 2770 2929 3574 2480 133491 85+
/av 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.03
Regions (North East, North West, Yorkshire & Humberside, East Midlands, West Midlands, East, London, South East, South West, Wales)
NE 619 697 660 646 678 651 634 532 596 596 613 580 545 573 554 526 620 522 606 558 532 352 585 580 557 560 557 527 562 559 600 523 510 528 443 528 579 437 611 539 575 615 549 657 659 597 597 605 585 657 787 585 30143 NE
/av 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.08
NW 1716 1765 1778 1552 1621 1515 1571 1571 1447 1535 1510 1473 1364 1437 1367 1501 1724 1314 1614 1522 1456 974 1528 1435 1436 1426 1396 1410 1475 1489 1415 1318 1620 1451 1173 1459 1437 1213 1523 1533 1622 1552 1604 1546 1554 1557 1526 1585 1655 1836 2062 1393 78556 NW
/av 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.10
Y & H 1316 1291 1258 1307 1204 1141 1080 1060 1051 1090 1056 1068 1023 1154 979 1041 1280 999 1180 1083 1025 621 1101 1117 1098 1017 975 1050 1100 1069 960 1029 1087 1101 835 1021 995 798 1083 1136 1175 1173 1176 1167 1201 1248 1150 1100 1159 1264 1559 897 57148 Y & H
/av 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.10
E Mid 1098 1158 1031 1046 1006 1012 1040 993 988 924 908 888 783 857 862 999 1062 841 1071 1015 907 583 1017 952 981 905 915 862 1006 972 913 910 956 931 780 896 879 795 966 973 1015 1043 935 1011 981 1042 979 954 1021 1067 1199 923 49851 E Mid
/av 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.11
W Mid 1291 1403 1370 1405 1245 1247 1216 1174 1101 1221 1088 1098 977 1165 1019 1070 1259 1044 1323 1231 1159 662 1195 1035 1079 1032 1070 1039 1151 1129 1132 1050 1100 1146 994 1136 1124 914 1147 1157 1225 1222 1025 1205 1181 1229 1241 1127 1210 1262 1494 931 59750 W Mid
/av 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.09
East 1248 1471 1396 1272 1230 1264 1153 1169 1202 1171 1155 1125 1030 1114 1121 1175 1249 1075 1246 1286 1233 784 1243 1214 1177 1161 1074 1178 1118 1227 1231 1175 1137 1211 939 1224 1161 915 1173 1190 1238 1202 1241 1251 1244 1215 1289 1246 1273 1301 1459 950 61826 East
/av 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.08
London 1112 1337 1215 1183 1090 1073 964 993 1005 1004 969 958 869 985 889 925 1049 844 1106 984 963 587 1089 957 1013 1002 900 893 1003 1001 953 895 977 941 805 955 977 830 976 1020 1024 1118 976 1052 1001 1046 1039 1065 1032 1120 1392 875 52031 London
/av 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.05
SE 1750 1980 1998 1921 1866 1687 1646 1772 1841 1735 1654 1716 1501 1541 1433 1563 1895 1557 1796 1806 1724 1084 1904 1719 1606 1611 1605 1717 1669 1703 1713 1621 1602 1740 1369 1628 1703 1368 1561 1751 1854 1964 1751 1888 1743 1677 1704 1651 1755 1776 2040 1369 88228 SE
/av 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.09
SW 1320 1297 1306 1321 1198 1283 1303 1193 1229 1206 1291 1145 1036 1163 1097 1192 1465 1140 1352 1294 1146 725 1298 1153 1196 1020 1108 1188 1232 1172 1103 1149 1297 1198 956 1211 1141 923 1254 1152 1260 1313 1261 1281 1214 1269 1236 1221 1253 1287 1538 938 62524 SW
/av 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.10
Wales 776 884 743 729 705 672 648 677 752 719 669 675 690 681 579 668 818 591 732 720 686 435 756 658 670 593 609 621 631 660 664 661 665 668 552 666 656 537 649 730 685 714 709 712 727 667 700 730 723 798 961 630 35651 Wales
/av 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.07
Total
122621331112776124011186211558112711115011225112271092710745 984010687 99191068012441 9941120481152010860 6825117421084410836103571023210515109781101310698103551098210942 88681075310673 875110960112071169911938112451179511538115791148311307116941238914530 9517 576896
/av 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.97 1.04 0.94 1.19 1.26 1.13 1.09 0.84 1.18 1.15 1.15 1.11 1.11 1.14 1.21 1.22 1.18 1.14 1.21 1.19 1.08 1.17 1.15 0.94 1.17 1.17 1.19 1.21 1.15 1.19 1.12 1.12 1.11 1.09 1.09 1.15 1.26 1.20 1.09
Excess of English and Welsh deaths
64 -510 -436 -358 -339 -362 -354 -393 46 -261 -276 179 -281 384 -598 191 1985 8 2476 1332 923-1347 1768 1428 1434 1065 1049 1266 1887 1962 1666 1255 1896 1784 629 1572 1367 -513 1585 1652 1889 2073 1486 1911 1210 1231 1107 950 1001 1641 2984 1562
Covid-19-associated deaths declared
922 1382 1484 1385 1242 1066 863 766 670 671 683 780 853 960 1003 1042 1125 735 719 547 410 186 284 264 285 332 423 585 745 810 723 592 551 453 314 365 301 235 287 400 565 687 651 650 518 423 348 317 326 390 429 393
References:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv
See also
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/comparisonsofallcausemortalitybetweeneuropeancountriesandregions/januarytojune2020
https://www.conass.org.br/indicadores-de-obitos-por-causas-naturais/
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covidhttps://elifesciences.org/articles/69336
https://github.com/akarlinsky/world_mortality
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11.1.23